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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Free Pick 08/23/18

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds will head west to Wrigley Field to face their division rival Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago will showcase the matchup and the game is scheduled to get going at 8:05 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Odds

The Reds have gone 56-71 SU this year and are 72-54 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.3 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having gained 5.5 units ATS. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 72-53 SU and 61-63 ATS. The team’s lost 1.9 units for moneyline bettors and 3.0 units ATS.

Chicago games have an over/under record of 54-67-3 in 2018. Cincinnati has been a decent over bet with a total record of 66-56-4.

Anthony DeSclafani will get the nod for the visiting Reds. The right-handed DeSclafani is 6-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 64 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with three strikeouts and a 2.84 ERA against Chicago this year.

The Cubs are putting the ball in the left hand of Cole Hamels (8-9, 4.00 ERA), who has 137 strikeouts and 48 walks as well as a 1.28 WHIP. Hamels has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2017.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.18 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.54 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.11, along with a K-per-9 of 7.81.

The Reds offense has slashed .258/.336/.405 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Cincinnati’s hitters have been led by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is slashing .310/.358/.493 with 19 home runs, 75 RBIs and 74 runs scored, while Peraza is hitting .292 with eight homers, 42 RBIs, 67 runs and 19 steals.

In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff has allowed 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.10, a WHIP of 1.37 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.6. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 3.19, a WHIP of 1.28 and a K/9 of 8.8. In 56 games against divisional opponents, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.66 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.50.

The Chicago hitters are putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .220/.289/.373 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo have led the Cubs’ hitters this year. Baez is slashing .292/.322/.566 with 26 home runs, 92 RBIs, 75 runs and 20 stolen bases, while Rizzo’s line sits at .267/.364/.453 with 20 homers, 80 RBIs and 51 runs.

The Reds have gained 8.0 units and are 22-11 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 19 of those games, as opposed to 13 that’ve gone under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 6.8 units and are 46-51 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 42 of those games, compared to 52 that went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The over has cashed in three of Cincinnati’s last seven games.

Cincinnati has posted 22.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 25.8 over its last five.

The Reds have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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