The Milwaukee Brewers are playing host to their division rival Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be televising the action and the game gets going at 7:40 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Milwaukee (-150) is favored over Cincinnati (+140) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 8.5 runs (-125 for the over and +105 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds sitting at Reds +1.5 runs (-155) and Brewers +-1.5 runs (+135).
The Reds are just 3-13 SU and are 7-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 9.5 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 4.4 units ATS. Cincinnati is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 8-9 SU and 8-9 ATS. They’ve lost 0.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.9 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Brewers games have an 8-9 over/under record thus far in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 7-9.
Sal Romano will get the nod for the visiting Reds. The right-handed Romano is 0-1 with a 6.46 ERA and seven strikeouts. He has yet to face Milwaukee this year, but he made three starts against the Brewers in 2017, posting a 0-3 record against them with a 7.24 ERA and 15 strikeouts.
The Brewers will send righty Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.69 ERA) to the mound. Guerra has four strikeouts and two walks to his name, as well as a 1.13 WHIP. Guerra only made one start against the Reds in 2017 (0-1, 14.40 ERA and three strikeouts across five innings).
Milwaukee’s pitchers have given up 4.6 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 4.64, a WHIP of 1.41 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has a 3.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. In 11 games against NL Central opponents, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.79 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.23.
The Milwaukee offense is putting up 3.5 runs per contest, including 2.8 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .226/.286/.399 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.
The Brewers’ offense has been led by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Thames is hitting .222/.314/.600 with 10 hits, five home runs, seven RBIs and eight runs scored, and Aguilar is hitting .391 with nine hits, zero RBIs and five runs.
Aguilar did not do especially well against righties at home last year. Across 90 such plate appearances, he slashed .171/.244/.366 (his overall season line was .265/.331/.505).
In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 6.0 runs per game and its starters own a 5.82 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 6.99 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.72, along with a K/9 of 8.74.
Reds hitters have slashed .233/.311/.339 on their way to 3.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Cincinnati’s offense has been powered by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Suarez is slashing .296/.424/.630 with eight hits, seven RBIs and five runs scored, while Barnhart (.268/.400/.463) is up to 11 hits, two homers, four RBIs and five runs scored.
Suarez did not seem to enjoy hitting against right-handed pitching on the road last year. Across 250 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .233/.340/.300 (his total season line was .260/.367/.461).
The Reds have lost 8.7 units and are 5-8 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in five of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 0.6 units and are 6-6 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to six that went under.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The Reds have hit six home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.
Milwaukee has recorded 19.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 19.0 over its last five.
The Brewers have lost three of their last four games SU.
xxxxx
