John Lamb (0-3, 5.24 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (55-77) go up against Wily Peralta (5-8, 4.30 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (58-75) in the first of a three-game division series at the Great American Ball Park. The game starts at 1:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 5 and will air on FSOH and FSWI.
In his most recent outing, Lamb pitched 6.0 innings, giving up two runs and striking out eight in a 4-1 loss to the Brewers. Joey Votto (.316, 81 Rs, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs, 8 SBs) continued his strong season Wednesday, going 2 for 5 with two runs, one home run, and three RBIs. The Brewers were victorious over the Reds 4-1 the last time Peralta pitched. He went 7.0 innings, allowing one run and striking out six. Khris Davis (.235, 36 Rs, 17 HRs, 48 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 Thursday with one RBI.
Cincinnati is favored by a small -106 margin in its matchup against Milwaukee. The matchup currently has a nine-run Over/Under (O/U). The Reds are 28-23 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -2,007. They have SU record of 4-6 and are unbeaten as the favorite (1-0) over their last 10 games. Cincinnati has averaged 5.4 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.0. The Reds are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with an MLB-high 120 steals.
Switching gears, the Brewers come into this game with a weak win percentage of .400 when playing as the underdog (32-48) and an overall money line of -1,628. Against divisional rivals, they are 24-29 SU and 16-22 as the underdog. Milwaukee has been playing better lately, averaging 5.3 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.1. Milwaukee’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.0 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 4.5.
The Brewers have gotten the better of the Reds in head-to-head matchups this season, going 7-6. This game will feature Peralta (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 43-58 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Brewers will be the left-hander Lamb. They sport an 18-14 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner – Cin, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 38% (18-30) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Milwaukee has won 52% (32-29) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Brewers are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Reds have a record of 12-17 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 43-16. The Brewers have a 43-10 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, Cincinnati ranks 24th with 529 runs and Milwaukee is 22nd with 542.
Ranking 24th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 331 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 410.
The Reds are 47-36 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Brewers are 44-29 when they hit at least one homer.
