The Cincinnati Bearcats know that they need to recruit at a higher level in the state of Ohio in order to become the program they were nearly a decade ago. Some people might forget that under Brian Kelly – before he went to Notre Dame – the Bearcats barely missed out on a spot in the 2010 BCS National Championship Game. Texas beat out Cincinnati and TCU to play Alabama for the national title. Cincinnati won’t get back to that level this season or even the next, but this season is important because the Bearcats are trying to start over and begin a new attempt to make themselves nationally relevant.
How Did They End 2016
The Bearcats ran out of steam at the end of last season, building a solid lead at Tulsa but then collapsing in the fourth quarter and allowing a winnable game to slip away. Before that, Cincinnati’s offense cratered. The Bearcats scored 13 points or fewer in the four games which preceded the Tulsa loss. The Bearcats endured four AAC games last season in which they scored under 10 points. The steady stream of horrid offensive showings coexisted with a bizarre quarterback drama in which head coach Tommy Tuberville simply didn’t entrust his offense to quarterback Gunner Kiel. The much-hyped recruit was a bystander for much of what the Bearcats did. The program lost all structure and coherence, which leads to the next portion of this preview:
Offseason Changes
Luke Fickell, who has been an outstanding defensive coordinator for the Ohio State Buckeyes over the past several years, wanted in on the head coaching game. He was the interim head coach for Ohio State in 2011 after Jim Tressel was brought down by scandal, but Fickell wasn’t prepared for that moment. He didn’t want to inherit a temporary form of power back then. He wants to be at Cincinnati right now as he tries to build his career. Fickell replaces Tommy Tuberville, whose complete loss of the offense and Gunner Kiel last season caused his situation to crash down upon him. The Bearcats had no other choice.
Four-year starting center Deyshawn Bond is gone as well. Cincinnati has to find a quality replacement for him in order to improve the offense.
Team X-Factor
Guards Will Steur and Keith Minor were backups last year who got a few starts due to injuries higher up the depth chart. They will have to round into form and become dependable, every-week performers so that the offensive line can protect whichever quarterback might emerge this season. Cincinnati will also need a credible running game to complement anything it achieves in the passing game.
What To Expect From The Bearcats This Year
The Bearcats won just one conference game last season, so this team has to be realistic about what it can do in 2017. If this team can win three conference games and go either 5-7 or 6-6, it will have reason to think its rebuilding project is going in the right direction.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 4-8
2015: 7-6
2014: 9-4
2013: 9-4
2012: 10-3
Schedule & Outlook
The Bearcats have a really tough stretch to start the season with only one home game in their first four contests. That’s a lot to ask of any team – let alone a unit that might barely be .500. They’ll start with an easy game – and likely win – against Austin Peay in Week 1. However, their September calendar starts off with a road trip to Michigan, a road trip to Miami of Ohio and then a road trip to Navy. They’ll lose at Michigan and that have a couple of tossups on the road. The good news is that five of their final eight games on the season are at home and they only have one tough road game after that, which is a October 28th visit to South Florida.
The Bearcats might be able to squeeze out a bowl season with a 6-6 record through 12 games, but that is the rosy scenario, the maximum this team will achieve. A 5-7 record seems like a good bet for a team which is behind most of its opponents in the AAC East.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 5.5
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