The Iowa Hawkeyes made the Rose Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, so 2016 was always going to have a hard time living up to the same set of standards. That turned out to be the case. However, Iowa probably fell short of its 2015 standards to a degree which upset the fan base. This year, Iowa will try to do a better job of meeting expectations, but some significant obstacles stand in the team’s way.
How Did They End 2016
The Hawkeyes ended 2016 on a very strong note. The team was 5-4 and laboring through a very difficult season. No one was happy, the offense was struggling, and the team generally needed a big spark. Michigan, ranked in the top five, came to Iowa City for a November night game, and although the offense was kept in check for almost the whole game, the defense was spectacular, shutting down Michigan’s passing attack and continuously making huge plays to enable the Hawkeyes to remain competitive. A late turnover by Iowa enabled Michigan to keep an 11-10 lead with a chance to run out the clock, but the defense came up with one more big play, enough to enable Iowa to get in position to kick and convert a game-winning field goal. The 13-11 victory reinvigorated the Hawkeyes, who won three straight games and blew out Nebraska in the regular season finale to finish at 8-4. The team lost the Outback Bowl to Florida, but it still left the season knowing it had salvaged something which could have been much worse.
Offseason Changes
Brian Ferentz, the son of head coach Kirk Ferentz, replaces Greg Davis as the new offensive coordinator. Iowa will therefore not experience that much turbulence in terms of the offensive playbook – it will be something the head coach is very familiar and comfortable with. Iowa could have hired someone very new and different, but it chose something very safe and recognizable. The bigger change is that C.J. Beathard is gone at quarterback. Iowa will miss his elusiveness as a runner, which enabled Beathard to make plays outside the pocket and when a structured play broke down. The Hawkeyes might find several situations in 2017 when they will need a quarterback who can scramble to save a play.
Team X-Factor
Wide receivers to help out the new quarterback – Jerminic Smith was suspended and then left the team. Matt VandeBerg missed spring ball with an injury and will need to find a way to perform. Whoever becomes the starting quarterback will also need support from other people further down the depth chart. This is an acute area of concern for an offense which wasn’t all that productive for most of 2016.
What To Expect From The Hawkeyes This Year
It is hard to see how or where Iowa will find enough plays in the passing game to support what is a generally strong rushing game. Opponents will load up the tackle box and dare Iowa to beat them with the pass. It is uncertain if the Hawkeyes will be able to do this regularly enough.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 8-5
2015: 12-2
2014: 7-6
2013: 8-5
2012: 4-8
Schedule and Outlook
The Hawkeyes start to the season should present them with a 3-0 start. They’ll start the year with a visit from Wyoming, which should result in a win. Then they’ll have a visit to Ames to visit rival Iowa State, but the Cyclones are still rebuilding, so that should be a win. Then they’ll come home to face the North Texas Mean Green. Anything short of 3-0 here and the Hawkeyes should be worried.
Looking beyond that, though, they do have some tough games with Ohio State and Penn State – both at home – on the radar. They do get to miss Michigan, which is a plus, but road games at Wisconsin and Northwestern will likely result in losses for this team.
The non-conference schedule is manageable, which should enable this team to sneak out seven wins with a modest Big Ten performance. However, don’t expect anything more than seven wins, because Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are all on a very nasty Big Ten schedule. Iowa has a high floor but a low ceiling.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 6.5
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