It was both a special season and a noticeable disappointment for the Louisville Cardinals in 2016. A team which had so much potential, and stood on the verge of a significant achievement, fell short of its goals. However, the school made history in the form of its best player, a dazzling talent who caused jaws to drop in astonishment for much of the college football season. Louisville gained its first Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson, making 2016 memorable in spite of the failures at the end.
How Did They End 2016
The Cardinals ended 2016 very poorly after such a promising start. The Cardinals thrashed Florida State, 63-20, in an event which gained the attention of everyone in college football from coast to coast. The Cardinals looked like a national title contender, and even though they lost at Clemson after getting stopped inside the 5-yard line in the final minutes of a six-point game, they still had a chance to make the College Football Playoff. However, they crashed and burned down the stretch. They were blown out by Houston in a November Thursday night game. They still had an Orange Bowl berth (against Michigan) to look forward to, but they unexpectedly stumbled against Kentucky in a game they had no business losing. What had been such a good season turned into a noticeable disappointment. They were then torn apart by LSU in the Citrus Bowl to complete the miserable conclusion to what had been a season filled with great promise.
Offseason Changes
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is gone, replaced by Peter Sirmon of Mississippi State. Interestingly enough, Sirmon was from Mississippi State, meaning that the two schools basically exchanged defensive coordinators, which is quite rare. Another key coaching change is that Mike Summers, a former UL coach, returned as offensive line coach from the University of Florida. Given how poorly the offensive line played in the Citrus Bowl against LSU – Jackson was running for his life in the offensive backfield, and simply did not have a chance to do much of anything against LSU’s dynamic athletes – Louisville needs an improved approach up front to give Jackson more protection this next season. Summers could be just what the program needs.
Team X-Factor
The defense is not without its problems, but offensive line is the most important unit on this roster. The O-line needs to give Lamar Jackson more protection – in this sense the LSU game was an important wake-up call for 2017. The Cardinals enter this season with no misperceptions or overconfidence about their offensive line. They know it is a potential crisis point if not handled effectively.
What To Expect From The Cardinals This Year
Louisville’s road trip to Florida State against the loaded Seminoles will be hard to win. FSU will be motivated to gain revenge from last year’s 43-point loss to the Cardinals. On the other hand, Louisville hosts Clemson with the Tigers not having Deshaun Watson, who is now in the NFL. The Cardinals are in good shape to win that game, because it will be harder for Clemson to score in bunches. Louisville should be able to repeat its 9-3 regular season from 2016. The question is if it can move up to 10-2.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 9-4
2015: 8-5
2014: 9-4
2013: 12-1
2012: 11-2
Schedule & Outlook
The Cardinals don’t exactly have an easy start to the schedule. They shouldn’t have too many problems with Purdue in Week 1 but starting with a Big Ten team is far from a cupcake. Then they’ll go to North Carolina in Week 2 followed by a home game with Clemson. That’s a really tough stretch. Later in the year, they’ll have to go to Florida State. The good news is that this team is good enough to win all three of those games, if they do everything right.
The Week 2 game at North Carolina could shape the whole season. If you trust Louisville to win that game, a 10-2 season makes sense. If the Cardinals lose that game, however, the season could deteriorate and the team could lose confidence, falling to 8-4. The view here is that North Carolina’s defense will not be ready to stop Lamar Jackson. 10-2 it is.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 9.5
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