He was the most popular and talked-about head coach in the college football offseason. He was the coach every top program wanted. He made the most headlines and was destined to gain a superstar-level gig before too long. Tom Herman finally made the jump to the big time. Houston succeeded under his guidance, but the former Ohio State offensive coordinator and Urban Meyer lieutenant was born to be a head coach at an elite program. He will now try to rebuild the Texas Longhorns into the superpower it once was under Mack Brown and Vince Young. It’s one of the biggest stories in college football this season – everyone wants to see how Herman will do as he takes over for Charlie Strong.
How Did They End 2016
The Longhorns were awful at the end of 2016, which is exactly why Strong was fired and Herman was able to come in and take charge. The Longhorns lost a football game to Kansas for the first time since 1938. There was still a slight chance Strong could reverse his fortunes and maybe save his job, but Texas was soundly defeated by TCU in the finale to finish out of the running for a bowl bid. That was simply too much for the people in and around 40 Acres to digest. The change was made, and Herman was given a hefty contract with full expectations that he will right the ship in Austin. Texas was excellent on offense in the first half of the 2016 season but lost steam as the journey went on, and the defense was unable to make up the difference.
Offseason Changes
The Herman factor is the big change, but with him comes a new defensive coordinator, Todd Orlando, who came from Houston to join his boss on the staff. Tim Beck, who was on the Ohio State staff in the two years after Herman coached under Urban Meyer, was brought aboard as the offensive coordinator. Among players, the big loss came at running back, where D’Onta Foreman moved to the Houston Texans of the NFL. Coaching, though, remains the biggest change on campus in 2017.
Team X-Factor
The play of quarterback Shane Buechele is the engine which will either drive this team or cause it to stall. Herman has a reputation for getting the most out of the quarterbacks he coaches, so if he hits a home run with Buechele, the Longhorns could be a lot better than many expect. If he is moderately successful, Texas will comfortably make a bowl game and set the table for a big 2018. If Herman fails completely with Buechele, Texas will finish close to .500, and everyone will be very uncomfortable in Austin next winter.
What To Expect From The Longhorns This Year
Expect erratic play in September but more consistency in October and November as players get used to Herman’s methods. It probably won’t all come together for Texas this season, but it will be better than the past two seasons.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 5-7
2015: 5-7
2014: 6-7
2013: 8-5
2012: 9-4
Schedule & Outlook
Texas gets a typically tough ‘Texas’ schedule, but the question is whether or not they’ll be ready for it. It starts tough right off the bat with a home game against Maryland. While Maryland isn’t the top team in the ACC, they’re on the rise and this will be a challenge. Two weeks later they’ll go to USC. From there, it’s just the Big 12 calendar. The good news for them is that they’ll get Oklahoma State at home, but they will have to go on the road to face West Virginia.
Texas will lose a non-conference game at USC, but if the Longhorns can go 6-3 in the Big 12, they will finish with eight wins. That seems very doable. Herman should be able to beat the teams he is supposed to beat, but Texas is not yet good enough to win all of its big games against the top teams in the conference. That will have to wait one more year. They should still get to eight wins here and go over.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 7.5
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