The UCLA Bruins are up against it this season. They were terrible last year, and even though rival USC did not win the Pac-12 South Division, the Trojans did win the Rose Bowl over Penn State. UCLA was supposed to have taken over control of Los Angeles when Pete Carroll left USC and went to the NFL to coach the Seattle Seahawks, but that hasn’t happened at all. USC remains the much stronger program, and while UCLA going 8-4 isn’t ideal, it is certainly a lot better than being 4-8. The Bruins cannot and will not accept another season remotely close to 2016. Jim Mora is in deep trouble and needs a solid season – at the very least – to justify faith that he can lead this program forward to great successes.
How Did They End 2016
The Bruins were knocked around by USC – which everyone predicted, and which has generally happened in that rivalry this century – but then came the season-ending loss to a bad California team which failed to make a bowl game. Losing to the lowly Golden Bears highlighted how far UCLA had declined, making it imperative for Mora to make lots of changes on his coaching staff in a desperate attempt to remain relevant and, more centrally, to save his own skin. UCLA is in a state of crisis in a tough Pac-12, and the end of 2016 showed just how bad things had become in Westwood.
Offseason Changes
Kennedy Polamalu is out, and Jedd Fisch is in as offensive coordinator. Polamalu had worked at USC, so the move had a symbolic quality of trying to take over USC and succeed whereas the Trojans had failed. However, that move did not work at all, so Mora pulled the trigger. Fisch comes from Michigan, where he had worked under Jim Harbaugh, one of the more popular and successful college football coaches in the game today.
That wasn’t the only change on the coaching staff. Hank Fraley was brought in as the new offensive line coach, a very important hire which needs to hit the spot for reasons which will be explained below in the next section:
Team X-Factor
Andre James has said that the new coaches have been needed, but he and his fellow offensive linemen need to prove it. James and the rest of UCLA’s offensive line have held this program back – not just in 2016 (or for James in particular), but throughout the past 19 years, the amount of time in which UCLA has gone without a Pac-10 (now Pac-12) championship. UCLA’s offensive lines have regularly been this team’s Achilles’ heel. The offensive line does not protect the star quarterbacks UCLA coaches recruit. The running game never gets off the ground – it’s a nasty domino effect which sabotages the whole offense. James and the offensive line have to be great. Otherwise, this team won’t improve to the extent it needs to.
What To Expect From The Bruins This Year
The offensive line is hard to trust. If starting quarterback Josh Rosen makes it through a full season healthy, this team can be 7-5, maybe even 8-4 (though that’s unlikely). However, if Rosen is reinjured thanks to his line’s deficient blocking, the season could collapse under its own weight again, and UCLA would slide to 5-7, which would get Mora fired.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 4-8
2015: 8-5
2014: 10-3
2013: 10-3
2012: 9-5
Schedule & Outlook
The Bruins schedule isn’t particularly friendly. They’ll start the year against a quality SEC school in Texas A&M. Then they’ll go to Memphis two weeks later followed by a visit to Stanford. This team could very well be 2-2 after it’s first four games. Beyond that, they’ll still have to go to Washington and to USC – both of which should lead to losses – as well as Utah and Arizona.
When you do the math, this is a 6-6 or 7-5 team. There are too many flaws up and down the roster, but the new coaches appear to have a good grasp of what to do and will have modest success developing players. Would a 7-5 season save Mora? It is hard to say, but beating USC would probably do the trick.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 6.5
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