The college football season has the usual suspects in terms of national title favorites – you know who they are: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma. After the top tier of teams, however, what about the programs which have a modest chance but don’t seem to be likely to join the top of the pack? The teams below all have good chances of winning nine or 10 games, which would offer a solid bowl bid, but 11 or 12 wins are generally needed to make the College Football Playoff and compete for a national championship. These teams need a few breaks to get the dream season they want. They are part of the discussion, but they will need some help. And they’re all priced at 25/1 or higher, according to BetDSI.
Miami Hurricanes
Odds To Win National Championship: 25-1
The big thing working against the Hurricanes is that they had such great turnover luck last season. The defense got the ball back for the offense in important situations with great regularity, and that’s something the Canes can’t count on to the same degree this season. However, a defense can be very good without getting a lot of turnovers. Miami has clearly improved its speed, depth and physicality on defense. If Miami can merely be moderately better on offense this season, the defense won’t have to get a ton of turnovers. If the defense is effective on third down and can get off the field, turnover differential won’t be as important as it was last season. The offense simply has to do more.
Wisconsin Badgers
Odds To Win National Championship: 25-1
The Badgers are a consistent nine- or 10-win program, but getting to 12 wins has normally been the problem. Last year, Wisconsin won 12 games, but it didn’t win the game it had to win to make the College Football Playoff, the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State. This year, it will be challenging for Wisconsin to stack together consecutive 12-win regular seasons, but if the Badgers go 11-1 and then win the Big Ten title game, they can be a 12-win team once again, but this time move to the playoff and a semifinal berth. Wisconsin has the elite running back, Jonathan Taylor, to control the ball and keep its defense rested. Wisconsin will be the kind of team which shortens games and gives opponents virtually no margin for error. This formula is excellent at getting nine wins, but Alex Hornibrook at quarterback has to be better than average for Wisconsin to take the next step.
Michigan State Spartans
Odds To Win National Championship: 25-1
The Michigan State model of play is very similar to Wisconsin’s. Many people had wondered after a 3-9 disaster in 2016 if the Spartans could regroup. They did in 2017 by going 10-3 with a bowl win. The Michigan State identity of rock-solid defense at all three levels of the field was able to bail out the offense on the days when the offense was not at its best. This is how Michigan State became a very consistent program earlier in the decade. The big limitation for Michigan State is that it is not as fast as Ohio State, but if the Spartans can force turnovers from Ohio State’s offense, they have a chance to win the Big Ten and surprise a lot of people.
USC Trojans
Odds To Win National Championship: 40-1
The Trojans play in a weak Pac-12 South Division. They might lose once to Stanford, but if they can win all their other Pac-12 games and then beat Notre Dame at home, they could find a path to the semifinals. Sam Darnold will not be on the roster – he is now in the pros – but USC still has elite receivers and running backs which can compensate for the loss of a star quarterback. The Trojans know they have to be better collectively, and that’s how they can sneak up on other national contenders.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Odds: 40-1
The Clemson Tigers are the class of the ACC, but if a dark horse can emerge in the conference, it’s Virginia Tech. Florida State has first-year head coach Willie Taggart, who figures to be very successful… but not in his first season. Virginia Tech plays Miami at home, giving the Hokies a leg up in the ACC Coastal Division. Josh Jackson is a veteran quarterback. Virginia Tech is not as strong up front as Clemson is and will not be favored to beat the Tigers. However, the Hokies have a lot of quality components and could potentially make a run.
