For the first time in recent memory, the final weeks of college football season didn’t include a huge surprise — unless you count Ohio State beating Michigan as a four-point home underdog.
But it was close. Oh so close. Alabama trailed Georgia 28-14 midway through the third quarter in the SEC Championship Game before the Crimson Tide rallied to win 35-28 and secure a College Football Playoff spot.
And speaking of chalk, the CFP semifinals both have double-digit lines, with Alabama and Clemson both expected to cruise into the championship game. Maybe our surprises are yet to come.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
We’ll set the stage for you with this week’s NCAA Power Rankings.
NCAA Power Rankings
- Alabama (13-0, 8-5 ATS, last week: 1)
The Crimson Tide was finally pushed, and it took a backup quarterback to survive against Georgia. Yes, that sounds familiar, but it was Jalen Hurts completing the rescue mission this time. Alabama’s reward is a date with Oklahoma (+14) in the Orange Bowl.
- Clemson (13-0, 7-6 ATS, last week: 2)
Don’t look now, but the Tigers have nearly caught Alabama in the ATS department after a slow start to the season from a gambling perspective. Clemson thumped Pitt in the ACC Championship Game and is a heavy 11.5-point favorite against Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl.
- Notre Dame (12-0, 6-4-2 ATS, last week: 3)
The Fighting Irish will have an extra week off before the semifinals compared to the other three teams, which might create a rust-or-rest argument. What’s not up for debate is that though this team likely would be an underdog to the other teams in the top six, it deserves to be in the playoff after going unbeaten against a reasonably tough schedule.
- Georgia (11-2, 8-5 ATS, last week: 4)
What, drop Georgia after it was the first team all year to give Alabama a serious threat? I don’t think so. The committee made the right decision to leave the Bulldogs out — giving the SEC two teams and staging an immediate Alabama-Georgia rematch would have been fun but ultimately not fair.
- Oklahoma (12-1, 6-7 ATS, last week: 5)
The Sooners finally found enough defense to put away Texas on a day when their normally unstoppable offense was finally stopped a few times. Kyler Murray and company still put up 39 points; they’ll be hard-pressed to do that against Alabama but might have to.
- Ohio State (12-1, 6-7 ATS, last week: 6)
The Buckeyes did all they could down the stretch to reach the playoff, winning five straight games after the ugly loss to Purdue and taking the Big Ten Championship, but ultimately this just wasn’t one of the four best teams in the country. Too many close wins and unconvincing performances.
- Central Florida (12-0, 9-3 ATS, last week: 7)
Speaking of doing everything you can, the Knights have won 25 straight games, albeit against a soft schedule compared to almost every other team on this list. UCF does have another chance to make a statement in the Fiesta Bowl against LSU (-7.5). Let’s hope the Tigers care about the game more than Auburn seemed to care about the Peach Bowl a year ago.
- Michigan (10-2, 6-6 ATS, last week: 8)
It must have been painful for the Wolverines to sit at home watching rival Ohio State win another Big Ten championship, but Michigan couldn’t come up with the goods in either of its biggest two games this season, the opener against Notre Dame or at Ohio State.
- Florida (9-3, 8-4 ATS, last week: 9)
The Gators get Michigan in a bowl game for the third time in the past four years, but this one is by far the best matchup of the three. Florida is a 7.5-point underdog in what could be a defensive struggle in the Peach Bowl (though the total is a relatively robust 51).
- Washington State (10-2, 10-2 ATS, last week: 10)
Likewise, the Cougars had to watch the Pac-12 title tilt from their homes in Pullman as rival Washington took home the conference championship. The Pac-12’s weak season conspired to shut Wazzu out of the New Year’s Six bowls and confine them to an under-the-radar matchup in the Alamo Bowl against Iowa State (+3.5).
- LSU (9-3, 6-6 ATS, last week: 11)
The Tigers will be motivated to beat UCF, but the place known as DBU already lost its top two cornerbacks for the game, with Greedy Williams declaring for the NFL Draft and Kristian Fulton injured. Is LSU (-7.5) ripe for an upset?
- Penn State (9-3, 7-5 ATS, last week: 13)
The best non-New Year’s Six game? As usual, the Citrus Bowl is a strong contender, with the Nittany Lions giving six points to Kentucky. Winner could land in the top 10.
- West Virginia (8-3, 6-4-1 ATS, last week: 14)
Another strong contender for best non-New Year’s Six bowl is the Mountaineers’ battle with Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl (this is right before the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 28, so that’s a Friday night schedule worth clearing).
- Texas (9-4, 5-7-1 ATS, last week: 12)
The Longhorns couldn’t hold an early lead against Oklahoma and failed to repeat an upset that would have made this season truly memorable. Still, a consolation game in the Sugar Bowl against SEC runner-up Georgia isn’t all bad. And if Texas can win as an 11-point underdog, it’d be even better.
- Texas A&M (8-4, 8-4 ATS, last week: 15)
The final football game of 2018 will be the Aggies’ Gator Bowl tilt against North Carolina State at 7:30 p.m. ET on New Year’s Eve. Texas A&M, which last played a seven-overtime thriller against LSU, is a fice-point favorite.
- Washington (10-3, 4-9 ATS, last week: 19)
Can Washington finish its late-season surge with a win in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State? It would go a long way toward erasing some of the Pac-12’s woes this season, but the Huskies will have to do it as an underdog: They’re getting 5.5 points in Pasadena.
- Syracuse (9-3, 8-3-1 ATS, last week: 16)
A surprise season for the Orange could become a truly memorable one with a 10th win and one more upset against West Virginia in the aforementioned Camping World Bowl. Syracuse is a seven-point dog.
- Kentucky (9-3, 5-7 ATS, last week: 17)
The SEC is favored in nine of its 11 bowl games, and in four cases by more than a touchdown. One of the exceptions is Kentucky, which is a six-point dog to Penn State in the Citrus Bowl (the other exception is Florida in the Peach Bowl).
- Mississippi State (8-4, 8-4 ATS, last week: 18)
If you truly want to see two good defenses and running games — old-fashioned football, or at least as close to it as you’re going to get these days — check out the Bulldogs’ Outback Bowl meeting with Iowa. Mississippi State is -6 in a game with a total of just 43.
- Fresno State (11-2, 9-4 ATS, last week: 20)
The last time Fresno State won at Boise State before Saturday’s thrilling Mountain West Championship victory in overtime was before the Broncos even had the blue turf, more than 30 years ago. That’s how big the result was for Fresno State, which would have been in the New Year’s Six had it not been for UCF’s comeback earlier in the day. Instead, the Bulldogs get a date in the Las Vegas Bowl, traditionally one of the best early bowl games, against Arizona State (+4.5).
Also considered (alphabetical order): Appalachian State, Army, Auburn, Boise State, Buffalo, California, Cincinnati, Iowa, Iowa State, Missouri, Northwestern, Stanford, Troy, Utah, Utah State, Virginia
