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College Football Betting: NCAA Power Rankings – Week 3

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

It’s no surprise that Alabama returns to the top of the Get More Sports college football power rankings; the Crimson Tide is No. 1 according to anybody who hasn’t been living in a cave.

But GMS has the Tide at the top for more than just their pedigree; Alabama has also covered huge spreads twice without breaking a sweat and appears to be a powerhouse for gamblers, too.

There are plenty of other teams around the country who have covered the spread twice, but few who have done it as easily as Nick Saban’s wrecking crew in Tuscaloosa. Bet against Bama at your own risk.

Elsewhere, Michigan State, slotted at No. 14 last week, took a tumble out of the rankings entirely after losing as a 4.5-point favorite at Arizona State. The Sun Devils take the Spartans’ place in the NCAA Power Rankings.

Also new to the rankings is a familiar face from the Mountain West: The Boise State Broncos, who have covered two spreads by a combined 48 points, the highest total in the country. The incredible thing? BSU is an underdog this week on the road against Oklahoma State.

NCAA Power Rankings

  1. Alabama (2-0, 2-0 ATS, last week: 1)

Arkansas State, even getting 37 points, was no match for Alabama and its two-headed quarterback monster. The thought of the Crimson Tide having an elite offense to go with its always-elite defense … well, that’s how you get to be a 22-point favorite on the road against a Southeastern Conference opponent that has also won and covered in its first two games, Ole Miss.

  1. Ohio State (2-0, 2-0 ATS, last week: 4)

The Buckeyes are giving up a few too many yards on defense against weak Power 5 opponents Oregon State and Rutgers, but Ohio State still covered in both games and did so without suspended coach Urban Meyer. The task gets considerably more difficult with a trip to Arlington, Texas, to take on the TCU Horned Frogs with College Gameday a few miles away at TCU’s campus in Fort Worth. Still, the Buckeyes enter as a healthy 12-point favorite.

  1. Oklahoma (2-0, 1-1 ATS, last week: 3)

UCLA executed a heartbreaking backdoor cover against the Sooners last week, but Oklahoma still almost covered a 30 point spread against a Pac-12 team. That, and the explosive nature of the Kyler Murray-led offense, is enough to keep OU in this spot.

  1. Georgia (2-0, 1-1 ATS, last week: 5)

If South Carolina truly was the Bulldogs’ biggest competition in the SEC Eastern Division, Georgia will have no problem reaching the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, because the Dawgs came north and whipped the Gamecocks 41-17. That followed a pay game against FCS team Austin Peay in which Georgia won 45-0 but was favored by 48.5.

  1. Auburn (2-0, 1-1 ATS, last week: 6)

After notching perhaps the nation’s biggest win — both straight up and against the spread — against Washington in Week 1, the Tigers showed the danger of big spreads in a pay game against Alabama State. Auburn was favored by a whopping 61.5 points. That meant the Tigers’ overwhelming 63-9 win wasn’t quite overwhelming enough. Auburn gets back to the big-time games this week against SEC contender LSU and is favored by 9.5 points.

Related: College Football Betting Guide

  1. Clemson (1-0, 0-2 ATS, last week: 2)

The Tigers escaped College Station, Texas, with a 28-26 win against Texas A&M. From a College Football Playoff perspective, it’s a big win, but from a gambling perspective, the Tigers failed to cover as 12-point favorites. Still, Clemson is one of the best teams in the country and likely will be favored in the rest of its games. We’ll see if the Tigers can finally cover a spread as 33.5-point chalk against Georgia Southern this week.

  1. Stanford (2-0, 2-0 ATS, last week: 9)

The Cardinal won a huge game against fellow Pac-12 contender USC last week and flexed its defensive muscles in the process, with the 17-3 final well under the total for Stanford’s second straight week. Stanford has taken care of business as a solid favorite for two weeks. Now we’ll see what the Cardinal can do as a big favorite against UC Davis of the FCS (no line has been set yet) before getting back to big games against Oregon and Notre Dame at the end of the month.

  1. Washington (1-1, 0-2 ATS, last week: 7)

The Huskies, who were unlucky not to at least cover against Auburn in Week 1, recovered nicely with a 45-3 victory against a solid FCS team in North Dakota. Unfortunately for Huskies backers, the spread in the game was 46 and coach Chris Peterson called off the dogs (pun intended) before they could get to that number. Still, this is one of the nation’s best teams and it likely will be a favorite the rest of the way, including as a six-point chalk in a tricky road trip at Utah this week.

  1. Mississippi State (2-0, 2-0 ATS, last week: 13)

The Bulldogs were again one of the safest bets in the country last week, as they traveled to Kansas State for a tricky road game as 6.5-point favorites. But even though K-State was a trendy underdog pick, Mississippi State didn’t mess around, hammering the Wildcats 31-10 after making a 47.5-point line look like child’s play against Stephen F. Austin in a pay-game opener. This week, the Bulldogs will again look to cover a big spread when they play Louisiana-Lafayette and are favored by 31.5.

  1. Wisconsin (2-0, 0-2 ATS, last week: 8)

The Badgers remain in the top 10 despite another sluggish outing against an overmatched opponent. This team, which relies on running and defense, might not be a smart bet as a big favorite because it doesn’t roll up big point totals. That was true against both Western Kentucky (favored by 36.5) and New Mexico (favored by 35.5), which both ended up losing by 31. The spread is slightly more manageable this week: The Badgers are 22-point favorites against BYU.

  1. LSU (2-0, 1-1 ATS, last week: 12)

It’s tough to punish teams too much for not covering large spreads against FCS opponents. The motivation to win by 40 or 50 just isn’t there, and most bettors know betting those spreads is a tremendous risk. So the Tigers are still sitting in strong position after their big Sunday night win as an underdog against Miami to open the season, even if they didn’t cover the 42-spread in a 31-0 win against Southeastern Louisiana last week.

  1. Notre Dame (2-0, 1-1 ATS, last week: 11)

The Fighting Irish’s performance in a 24-16 win against Ball State was a little more concerning. Yes, Ball State is much better than most FCS teams, but Notre Dame also let the Cardinals hang around until the game was actually in doubt. That eliminates some of the good will the Irish built up in a big home win as an underdog against Michigan.

  1. Penn State (2-0, 1-1 ATS, last week: 12)

A week after surviving the biggest scare of any big favorite with a late touchdown and overtime victory against Appalachian State, the Nittany Lions put on a powerful display against Pittsburgh, covering the 7.5-point spread six times over in a 51-6 victory to reward bettors who stuck with Penn State after the opening-week near-fiasco. Now the Lions go back to being big favorites — they’re giving 34 points against Kent State.

  1. Boise State (2-0, 2-0 ATS, last week: NR)

Welcome to the nation’s premier gambling team through two weeks. Boise State covered its opening-game nine-point spread against Troy by 27 in a 56-20 victory, then covered a massive 34-point line against UConn by 21 with a 62-7 victory. Usually only great teams manage to defeat big spreads that easily, and Boise State is looking like just that. A totally different test awaits at Oklahoma State, which actually opened as a 3.5-point favorite against the Broncos. Hmmm.

  1. Michigan (1-1, 1-1 ATS, last week: 15)

The Wolverines followed up their disappointment in South Bend by whipping Western Michigan 49-3, making mincemeat of the 27.5-point spread in the process. After a terrible first half against Notre Dame, Shea Patterson and the Michigan offense has been on a roll, and that could carry this team — and its backers — a long way going forward.

  1. Arizona State (2-0, 2-0 ATS, last week: NR)

It’s one thing to blow away Texas-San Antonio as an undervalued 17-point favorite. It’s entirely another to erase a 10-point deficit and beat a preseason top 10 team in Michigan State as a big underdog. Herm Edwards wasn’t the most conventional hire, but he has the Sun Devils entrenched as the nation’s most surprising team. Hop on this bandwagon before the lines get bigger and bigger.

  1. West Virginia (2-0, 2-0 ATS, last week: 17)

It wasn’t a statement quite as much as the season-opening rout of Tennessee, but the Mountaineers took care of business against Youngstown State with a 52-17 win that covered the 33-point spread. Up next are a couple of meaty games against North Carolina State (weather permitting, with Hurricane Florence barreling down on the east coast) and the Big 12 Conference opener against Kansas State.

  1. Virginia Tech (2-0, 2-0 ATS, last week: 16)

The Hokies get bumped down a couple of spots even though they took care of a big 42-point spread against William & Mary, because the opening win as an underdog against Florida State seems a little suspect after the Seminoles needed some turnover luck to turn away FCS opponent Samford in their second game. If Virginia Tech and Florida State were to play again, the Hokies would probably be favored, so that first game is more of a case of a bad spread than a powerful move by a team.

  1. Oklahoma State (2-0, 1-1 ATS, last week: 19)

There’s not much to go off of yet for Oklahoma State, which has destroyed FCS Missouri State (though not by enough to cover the spread) and another lowly opponent in South Alabama. That changes in a hurry, though, when the Cowboys welcome Boise State this week for a clash of two of the nation’s most powerful — and most cover-happy — teams.

  1. Central Florida (2-0, 1-1 ATS, last week: 20)

An unfortunate side effect of UCF’s demolition of UConn in the season opener is that the Knights’ line against South Carolina State was inflated to 52, a number UCF didn’t even bother trying to reach. This is still a great team with the explosiveness necessary to cover the big spreads it likely will see the rest of the way, starting with a 14.5-point line at North Carolina this week.

Also considered: Texas A&M, Southern Cal, Miami, TCU, Missouri, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, Michigan State, Vanderbilt

Written by GMS staff report

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