Two teams that like to deploy their running games, Head Coach Derek Mason and the Vanderbilt Commodores (+17) are set to pay a visit to the Missouri Tigers (-17) at Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field. This conference showdown is scheduled to start at 12:00 p.m. ET and SEC Network has the TV rights.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
Vanderbilt is a big road underdog in this SEC game and is currently getting 17 points. If they want to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently have to put down $1,400 in order to win $100 back on the Tigers (-1400). The Commodores are getting +780 moneyline odds. If one program can create a bunch of points early it will create a decent in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 59 points.
Sharp bettors are siding with the Tigers. The line initially opened at -14 while the game’s total was originally 58.5.
The Commodores are down 0.9 units so far and 5-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 3-6. The Tigers have lost 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4-1 ATS and five of their games have gone over the total.
The Commodores are 4-5 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 5-4 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.
These two squads faced off last year with the final result being a 45-17 victory for Missouri.
The Commodores are coming off a resounding 45-31 win over Arkansas on October 27. The Commodores defense allowed the Razorbacks to rush for 207 yards on 29 attempts, including two rush TDs. Offensively, Kyle Shurmur completed 13 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (172 yards on 26 rush attempts, three TDs) and Khari Blasingame (46 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Jared Pinkney (five receptions, 93 yards, two TDs) and Kalija Lipscomb (four catches, 44 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
Missouri just earned a 38-17 win over Florida. Drew Lock completed 24-of-32 passes for 250 yards and three touchdowns. Damarea Crockett (114 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and Larry Rountree III (72 yards on 14 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game while Johnathon Johnson (five receptions, 47 yards) and Emanuel Hall (four catches, 77 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Vanderbilt’s run the ball on 52.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Missouri has a rush percentage of 53.5. The Commodores have produced 153 rush yards/game (including 131 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Tigers are totaling 190 rush yards per game (167 in conference) and have 19 total rushing TDs.
The Commodores offense has logged 231 yards/contest through the air overall (202 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Tigers have produced 280 pass yards per contest (196.4 against SEC foes) and have 19 total pass scores.
Defensively, Vanderbilt appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 197 rush yards and 216 pass yards per game. The Missouri D has given up 279.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 125.0 yards per game on the ground. The Commodores are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.55 to opponents, while the Tigers have given up a 7.67 ANY/A.
Offensively, Shurmur is up to 1,821 passing yards this year, and has connected on 60 percent of his 242 attempts with 13 passing scores and five interceptions. He’s got a 7.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.31 over the last two games.
We expect the Commodores to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Jared Pinkney (441 yards, five TDs), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (667 rush yards, eight rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Khari Blasingame (300 rush yards, two rush TDs, 109 receiving yards) have been focal points in the offensive scheme for Vanderbilt.
Drew Lock has completed 178-of-284 passes for 2,229 yards, 19 TDs and six INTs for Missouri. His ANY/A sits at 7.75 for the season and 7.35 over his past two games.
The Tigers also prefer to utilize their backfield. Johnathon Johnson (342 receiving yards, three TDs) has gotten involved lately, but Damarea Crockett (531 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Larry Rountree III (621 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have seen a lot of touches lately.
Free Prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers
SU Winner – Missouri, ATS Winner – Missouri, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Vanderbilt defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times this year. Missouri has produced 14 sacks.
Missouri has lost four fumbles this season while the Vanderbilt offense has lost seven.
The Commodores offense has produced six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have put up 12 such plays.
The Vanderbilt defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Missouri has given up 14 such plays.
The Vanderbilt offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Missouri has created 12 such runs.
The Commodores defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tigers have given up six such runs.
The O/U for Missouri’s last match was set at 59. The under cashed in the team’s 38-17 victory over Florida.
Over its last three games, Missouri is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three games, Vanderbilt is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Vanderbilt’s previous game going into it was 51.5. The over cashed in the team’s 45-31 triumph over Arkansas.
As a team, Vanderbilt has produced 4.2 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.0 over its last two.
Missouri has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.0 over its last two.
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