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College Football Free Pick – North Carolina State Wolfpack at Texas A&M Aggies

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The North Carolina State Wolfpack are dogs to the No. 21 Texas A&M Aggies in the Taxslayer Gator Bowl. ESPN is scheduled to broadcast the action and this Monday game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET.

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview

In this early-week game, Texas A&M is labeled as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 4 points. The Wolfpack are also receiving +165 moneyline odds while the Aggies are -185. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 58.5 points, and if one side finds paydirt early, it’ll likely create a nice live betting scenario.

This game’s line opened at -5. The O/U has yet to move since it was set initially at 58.5.

The disappointing Wolfpack have lost 10.8 units so far in 2018 and are 6-6 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-6. The Aggies have gained 3.0 units this season. The team is 8-4 ATS and also has an O/U record of 5-6.

The Wolfpack have gone 9-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Aggies are 8-4 SU.

Both teams come into the contest on three-game winning streaks. The Wolfpack are coming off a resounding 58-3 win over East Carolina on December 1. The defensive unit did its part in the win, limiting the Pirates to just 73 passing yards and 31 rushing yards. Anthony Scott had a productive day for the Pirates in that one with 50 rushing yards on 12 attempts. On the offensive side, Ryan Finley completed 32-of-44 passes for 409 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Reggie Gallaspy (220 rushing yards on 24 attempts, two TDs) led the running attack while Jakobi Meyers (13 receptions, 163 yards, one TD) and Kelvin Harmon (six catches, 67 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Texas A&M just got a 74-72 win over LSU. The defensive unit allowed the Tigers to run for 215 yards on 51 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Joe Burrow had a productive showing in the defeat for LSU, accounting for 100 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 29 attempts. For Texas A&M, Kellen Mond completed 23-of-49 passes for 287 yards and six touchdowns. Trayveon Williams (198 yards on 35 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Mond (42 yards on 20 carries, one TD) mounted the running attack as Quartney Davis (seven receptions, 101 yards, two TDs) and Jhamon Ausbon (five catches, 37 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

North Carolina State has run the ball on 49.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas A&M has a rush percentage of 54.8 percent. The Wolfpack have rushed for 144 yards per game and have 27 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Aggies are totaling 204 rush yards per game and have 23 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Aggies ought to have the edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has generated 4.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.2 YPC to opponents. The Wolfpack have recorded 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 3.5 YPC to opponents.

The Pack offense has tallied 328 yards/game in the air overall and has 24 passing TDs so far. The Aggies have produced 262 pass yards per contest and also have 24 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina State has allowed 109 rush yards and 271 pass yards per game. The Texas A&M D has allowed 262.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 92.0 yards per game on the ground. The Pack are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.46 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies have allowed a 7.97 ANY/A.

Offensively, Finley is already up to 3,589 passing yards this season. He’s completed 69 percent of his 424 attempts with 24 scores through the air and eight interceptions. He’s got an 8.49 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.48 over the last two outings.

Kellen Mond has completed 213-of-369 passes for 2,775 yards, 21 TDs and eight INTs for Texas A&M. His ANY/A sits at 6.52 for the year and 8.56 across his past two games.

Betting Pick: North Carolina State Wolfpack at Texas A&M Aggies

SU Winner – Texas A&M, ATS Winner – Texas A&M, O/U – Over

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Notes

Betting Notes

The Wolfpack offense has created seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aggies have accounted for four such plays.

The North Carolina State defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Texas A&M has given up 15 such plays.

The North Carolina State offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Texas A&M has created 24 such runs.

The Wolfpack defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aggies have given up 10 such runs.

Each team defense has tallied 35 sacks this season.

North Carolina State has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.1 over its last two.

Texas A&M has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.4 over its last two.

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Written by GMS Previews

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