College Football Futures: It is one of the great ironies of college football wagering that futures odds are often based on the past. Keep in mind that all betting odds and prices are based not on the old cliché of “what Vegas thinks” but instead are based on public perception and that is certainly the case when looking at the BetDSI college football futures board for the 2014 national championship. The key to finding good, and for that matter bad, futures picks is matching the price of this year with the potential for this year.
Assessing the Value of the Top Favorites
As one would expect the defending national champion Florida State Seminoles were the public choice at BetDSI with a price of +350. While there is not much value in that price the Seminoles are loaded with an SEC caliber team that plays in the ACC with a relatively lighter schedule.
The Oklahoma Sooners are also a popular team at +925 to win the national championship but count us as among those who think that price is far too expensive of an overlay. The Sooners are all of a sudden getting a lot of love based on their Sugar Bowl win over an Alabama team that was “not there.” QB Trevor Knight is yet to prove he can deliver the goods consistently over an entire season.
The Baylor Bears opened at +2513 to win the national championship based much more on last year’s Big 12 championship and the return of Heisman candidate Bryce Petty at QB than on a defense that has seven departed starters and is lacking depth.
The Alabama Crimson Tide is always the popular name brand choice at +703 to win the national championship and has one of the more favorable league schedules in the SEC but also will field an unproven QB.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are the favorite of the Big Ten Conference and opened as a +925 choice to win it all. Ohio State has to prove that their new defense is going to improve.
Oregon is a +780 choice to win the BCS title and could be a good selection now that the head coaching transition to Mark Helfrich has been completed and Marcus Mariota returns at QB. With a favorable league schedule this is the best chance Oregon has since 2010 to win all the marbles.
Our Prognosis
Alabama has enough of a price and ability to rate the call.
