College Football Futures: Head coach Jim Mora Jr. has done a remarkable job of changing the perception and the expectations of the UCLA Bruins football program as they won nine games in his first season followed by a 10-3 mark last year that, coupled with two strong recruiting classes, has made the Bruins a trendy pick on the futures board for 2014. UCLA opened as a 15/1 choice to win the 2014 BCS national championship with an over under win total of 9.5 -115. UCLA was a 4/1 choice to win the Pac 12 championship and was at 3/2 to win the Pac 12 South Division.
Hundley for Heisman
Junior QB Brett Hundley triggers an attack that has averaged 35 points per game the past two seasons. Hundley led the Bruins in rushing last year and had a strong 152. 9 QB rating with a 24/9 TD/INT ratio. Defense is the concern at Westwood as the Bruins allowed 23.2 points per game but return 8 starters that are talented and now have seasoning.
Handicapper’s Notes
For the past decade UCLA has been a reliable home favorite with a mark of 24-13 against the spread. The Bruins have also been a strong board value as a home dog in that span with a mark of 17-9 ATS. UCLA has been a good value in non-conference games with a mark of 23-11 ATS since 2004 and has paid out in 12 out of their last 18 games that follow a straight up win.
Our Prognosis
We respect what Mora has accomplished but find the Bruins overvalued. UCLA is yet to demonstrate a championship caliber defense in the mold of perennial Pac 12 champion Stanford. While the D should be improved, that does not mean it will be dominant, especially considering some key losses like LB Anthony Barr.
