College Football Futures: After an undefeated regular season in 2012 that ended with a blowout loss in the BCS Championship Game against Alabama, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish took a couple of steps back last year with a 9-4 record and were never a factor in the title race. A big reason for the reduction in production was the suspension of starting QB Everett Golson, who as the sophomore starter in 2012 was a key component in the Irish’s run at glory. Golson returns for 2014 and with that comes the return of big dreams and high expectations. The question is whether or not that is realistic. Notre Dame opened as a 40/1 choice to win the BCS National Championship. The Fighting Irish opened with an over under win total of 9.5.
Irish Could be Offensive to Opponents
Golson leads an offense that returns seven starters but a defense that was already mediocre returns just five starters after allowing 22.4 points per game in 2013.
Handicapper’s Notes
Notre Dame has covered the spread in just six out of their last 17 home games at Notre Dame Stadium with just six out of their last 19 home games going over the total. Part of the drag on Notre Dame’s home value is the public betting mystique of the Fighting Irish and Notre Dame Stadium, which carries a cache far less valuable than the image of that setting with the average bettor. Notre Dame has covered the spread in 11 out of their last 20 away games with just four out of their last 16 away games going over the total. Notre Dame has been a poor betting value as a favorite with just four wins against the spread in their last 14 games as a chalk with just three out of their last 17 games as a favorite going over the total. The Fighting Irish have been a strong value as a dog however with 13 payouts in their last 19 games as a pup and with nine out of their last 14 games as a dog going under the total.
Our Prognosis
The October 18 game at Florida State will be a great measuring stick. We don’t believe the Irish are of national title caliber.
