Pittsburgh @ North Carolina – Line: North Carolina (-2) O/U- 64.5 – This is a pretty interesting match-up for two 4-5 teams, mainly due to two opposing players having very quiet yet dominating seasons. Tar Heel QB Marquise Williams has been on fire this year, throwing for 2,226 yards and 17 touchdowns, while adding another 501 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. Panthers RB James Connor ranks 3rd nationally with 1,342 yards on the ground.
Pittsburgh seems to have the edge in this one though. North Carolina’s run defense is atrocious, and they give up a ton of points as is. Look for Pittsburgh to control the game and run right through the Tar Heels, although Williams will do some damage of his own. Pick: Pittsburgh (+2) OVER 64.5[divider]
Iowa @ Illinois – Line: Iowa (-3.5) O/U- 57 – What in the world happened to that once-solid Iowa team last week? The mighty Golden Gophers of Minnesota happened to them, to the tune of 51-14. Go ahead and file that away as a fluke. Hawkeyes coach Kurt Farentz will have his team back on their feet and ready for an Illinois team that has been juggling quarterbacks ever since starter Wes Lundt went down weeks ago. Wait, isn’t this the same Illinois team that beat Minnesota with backup quarterbacks? Well, that was a fluke too, so now we have offsetting flukes. Iowa wears down a terrible Illini defense with their balanced attack, and both teams do their job pushing the points over the total. Pick: Iowa (-3.5) OVER 57[divider]
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan – Line: Western Michigan (-27.5) O/U- 56.5 – Finally, the matchup we’ve all been waiting for, the Great Territorial Battle of Michigan. On one side, we have a team that is a respectable 6-3, challenging for a divisional crown in the MAC. On the other side, we have a team that is 2-7, scores 14.3 points per game, and gives up 38.1. The latter side would be the lowly Eagles of Eastern Michigan. Pick: Western Michigan (-27.5) UNDER 56.5[divider]
Virginia Tech @ Duke – Line: Duke (-4) O/U- 48 – Duke has been an underrated team all year, yet they are 8-1 and sit atop of the ACC Coastal division. Virginia Tech is the lone team to take down Ohio State this year, and have celebrated by going 2-5 since. It seems that the Hokies might be pretty close to throwing in the towel for the year, while Duke is continuing to pick up steam towards a likely showdown with Florida State in the ACC title game. The Blue Devils are an incredibly well-rounded team that will be too much at home for a sleepwalking Virginia Tech team to handle. Pick: Duke (-4) OVER 48[divider]
Nevada @ Air Force – Line: Air Force (-2.5) O/U- 53.5 – As usual, Air Force has been relying on their running game all season, which racks up 282.4 yards per game and is good for ninth nationally. They’ll need every bit of that to fend off a solid Wolf Pack team that is 1st in the Mountain West’s West division. (Yes, the Mountain West West) Talented Nevada duel-threat QB Cody Fajardo has been torching teams all season, racking up 1,927 yards through the air with 12 touchdowns, and adding another 589 yards and 10 scores on the ground. The Falcons defense has been serviceable all season, staying well-rested with their offense keeping the ball on the ground most of the game. Air Force should do just a good enough job bottling Fajardo up to edge out a win at home. Pick: Air Force (-2.5) OVER 53.5[divider]
Rice @ Marshall – Line: Marshall (-21.5) O/U- 63 – Everyone’s favorite undefeated team is favored big in yet another one. Marshall running back Devon Johnson has led the Thundering Herd rushing attack with a ridiculous 8.8 yards per carry average, and he’ll have a decent challenge against a Rice rush defense that currently ranks 33rd in yards allowed per game.
The Owls began the season 0-3, but have reeled off six straight wins to reach 2nd place in the West division of Conference USA. None of this matters to Marshall, as they have beaten opponents by a staggering average of 31.2 points per game en route to their 9-0 mark. Look for more of the same in this home setting for the Herd, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Pick: Marshall (-21.5) OVER 63[divider]
San Diego State @ Boise State – Line: Boise State (-14) O/U- 56.5 – It’s offense versus defense in this Mountain West showdown. San Diego State can sure pound it on the ground, with Donel Pumphrey leading the way and compiling 1,216 yards so far this season. The problem for the Aztecs is that those yards are not producing enough points, and they are averaging just 23.6 per game.
San Diego State has had to rely on a stout defense that’s been allowing just 20.2 points allowed per game to bail them out. Boise State comes in averaging 37.7 points per game behind highly efficient quarterback Grant Hedrick. The Aztec defense will hold early but eventually be overwhelmed by the Broncos passing attack on a frigid and annoyingly blue night in Boise. Pick: Boise State (-14) UNDER 56.5
