A last-minute rundown of college football picks in some of the week’s under-the-radar games for Week 13.
Miami (FL) @ Virginia – Line: Miami (-5.5) O/U- 48.5 – Miami let the nation down last week when they fell short late in their upset bid over Florida State. They’ll get a chance to take out their frustrations against a free-falling Virginia team that hasn’t won since Oct. 4th. The Hurricanes should run away in this one, improving their bowl prospects and adding to the Cavaliers misery.
Somewhere in Florida,in a worn leather recliner, Howard Schnellenberger will be watching in approval, dozing in and out of sleep while wearing a powder blue suit. Pick: Miami (-5.5) OVER 48.5[divider]Maryland @ Michigan – Line: Michigan (-5.5) O/U- 42.5 – Michigan coach Brady Hoke is probably longing for the days of success he had at Ball State at this point. It’s late November, and the Michigan Wolverines are still a win away from being bowl eligible. That win is not likely to come against a pretty good Maryland team that’s hoping to close the season out strong and go to a decent bowl.
Michigan simply cannot score, and it’s obvious that Hoke knows he’s on his way out of Ann Arbor. Wrong team favored. Pick: Maryland (+5.5) UNDER 42.5 [divider]Syracuse @ Pittsburgh – Line: Pittsburgh (-7) O/U- 49.5 – Pittsburgh hasn’t had a good first few seasons since joining the ACC. Syracuse’s talent is down this year, and the resurgence of the rest of the conference hasn’t helped them.
Still, someone has to win this one. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack is good for 253.4 yards per game, and that should help them outscore a Syracuse team that ranks 118th nationally with 19.1 points per game. The Panthers can still get to bowl eligibility if they close the season out with two wins, and this game should be a relatively easy first step in that process. Pick: Pittsburgh (-7) UNDER 49.5[divider]Penn State @ Illinois – Line: Penn State (-6.5) O/U- 45 – Illinois quarterback Wes Lunt returned from a broken leg last weekend, but was an ineffective 14-of-25 for just 102 yards in Illinois’ loss to Iowa. He’ll get another chance this week against a tough Penn State team that has recovered nicely from a mid-season four game losing streak that saw them lose three of those games by a combined 13 points.
The Nittany Lions have been very effective defensively all season, allowing just 16.2 points per game, currently 4th nationally. The only problem is, as with many defensive-minded teams, they can’t score, and average just 21.3 points per game. Fortunately for them, the Fighting Illini rank 113th in scoring defense, allowing 36.0 points per contest. Illinois proved they are dangerous by beating Minnesota a few weeks back, and their passing attack provides a decent test for Penn State’s defense.
Even so, it won’t be enough to overcome a Nittany Lion team that has seemed to regain its footing to close the season out. Pick: Penn State (-6.5) OVER 45[divider]Texas Tech @ Iowa State – Line: Iowa State (-1) O/U- 70.5 – These two team’s seasons were over long ago, and one was more of a surprise than the other. Kliff Kingsbury’s Red Raiders have pulled off the admirable task of ranking near the bottom in every major defensive category. To further add to the mystique, they have managed to rank 6th nationally in passing yards, but only 74th in scoring. While those may be strangely impressive stats, Iowa State is an even bigger mystery.
The Cyclone’s two wins include a win over a good Iowa team, and their inept offensive unit managed to post the highest total all season against a very stout Texas defense. Basically, these teams make no sense. Iowa State does own the dubious distinction of losing to Kansas this year, so all trust is out the window. Texas Tech leaves Ames a winner after a rather high scoring affair of two teams that provide excitement in unconventional ways. Pick: Texas Tech (+1) OVER 70.5[divider]Stanford @ California – Line: Stanford (-5.5) O/U- 56 – If you remember one thing about Cal this year, remember this fake punt attempt:
Now that we have that out of the way, this is actually a pretty interesting matchup. Both teams are 5-5, both teams have two games left to become bowl eligible, and both teams have provided fairly good amounts of excitement this season. Sophomore Cal quarterback Jared Goff has been on a tear, throwing for 3,398 yards, 30 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Stanford has been their usual defensive self, allowing just 16.5 points per game.
Cal is averaging 40.7 points per game, so something has to give. In this case, it should be Stanford’s defense. Cal has put up points on everybody this season, and although their own defense ranks near the bottom in points allowed, they’ve managed to hang fairly closely in most of their losses this season by simply scoring when they have the ball. If Cal gets on a roll early, Stanford’s mediocre offense won’t be able to catch up. Pick: Cal (+5.5) OVER 56[divider]Eastern Michigan @ Ball State – Line: Ball State (-16.5) O/U- 53 – I once found myself at a bar in Austin, Texas one December night when the Ball State Cardinals were on their improbable undefeated run in 2008. Their conference title game against Buffalo was on all the screens, and by the end of the night everyone was chanting “BALL STATE” and high fiving, and the rally somehow continued into the street later.
Why a bunch of people in Austin were enamored with David Letterman’s alma matter that night, we’ll never know. Ball State lost that game, but nobody really seemed to have noticed. Anyways, The Cardinals are 3-7 nowadays, but lucky for them, Eastern Michigan is even worse. Pick: Ball State (-16.5) UNDER 53[divider]
