The AP Top-25 preseason poll is an important tool for a number of reasons because it gives college football fans a point of reference for which to base expectations heading into a new season. The preseason polls are far from an exact science but they can be used to break down which teams overachieved and underachieved the most. Here is a look at the five most overachieving programs from Power Five conferences over the last decade.
Baylor Bears
Baylor made a major move when it climbed from unranked to No. 11 in 2011 when Heisman trophy-winning quarterback Robert Griffin III led the charge and they have overachieved in every single season since. The Bears have improved their preseason rankings by 14 and then three spots in each of their last two Big 12 championship campaigns. The perception of the program has completely changed under head coach Art Briles as they used to be a Big 12 doormat. Now they’re a championship contender. Baylor opens this season as the No. 4 ranked team in the country so it will be tough to overachieve this year but that has certainly been the case up until this point.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs went on an absolute tear last season when they went from being unranked before the year began to the No. 1 team in the country over a four-week span. Even after losing three of their final four games, they still finished No. 11 in the country. Head coach Dan Mullen has transformed Mississippi State from an afterthought to a contender in the loaded SEC West. He’s taken them to five straight bowl game appearances and it’s clear that the program has overachieved since he took over as head coach.
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU made a couple of surprise runs in the AP Top 25 out of the Mountain West when head coach Gary Patterson first arrived but the mood changed dramatically last season when the Horned Frogs contended for a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff out of the Big 12. Their 2005 run from unranked to No. 11 in the final poll was impressive and they made a similar jump in 2008 when they went from unranked in to the top 10, but last year’s run was the most notable as they produced 12 wins and then routed Ole Miss in a bowl game. TCU will enter this season as the No. 2 team in the country and after years of overachieving, they are now clearly considered legitimate national championship contenders.
Utah Utes
It took some time for the Utes to regroup following Urban Meyer’s departure to coach at Florida but after three decent seasons, Utah finally shot up the rankings when they went unbeaten in 2008. From unranked to No. 3 in the country was a tremendous run in 2008 and while that would have been almost impossible to match in the Pac-12 last year, they did move from outside of the preseason rankings into the Top 25.
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Missouri Tigers
Everybody was wondering whether or not Missouri would be able to hold up in the SEC but they have taken the conference by storm over the past two seasons with a 23-5 record. They even have an Eastern Division title to show for it. The fact that they have overachieved shouldn’t be a huge surprise after they did exactly that in 2007 when they made an impressive run in the Big 12. However, to do it in the powerhouse SEC is undoubtedly considered that much more impressive by the college football world. Gary Pinkel and company were viewed with an eye of skepticism when making the shift to the SEC mostly because their defense was considered to be a soft spot but they’ve now produced back-to-back SEC Defensive Players of the Year (Michael Sam and Shane Ray). Missouri will have another opportunity to overachieve in the SEC again this season and they could definitely climb even further up this list if they do.
