When the Oklahoma City Thunder traded James Harden to the Houston Rockets, it seemed obvious that they jumped the gun in an attempt to get what they felt was the best possible package in return for a potential superstar they didn’t want to lose for nothing. The problem with the move is that the window to win championships is so small and by moving Harden when they did, the Thunder might have conceded their best chance to win a title before they even got the opportunity. The trade is such a landmark moment in the franchise’s history that it was only natural to circle back to it when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both went down with key injuries that once again nearly wiped away any shot Oklahoma City had to even be a playoff team this year. Westbrook is back and recharged the Thunder in a win on Friday and Durant isn’t far off. But is it too late? A closer look at the numbers reveals that isn’t exactly the case just yet.
Teams They Are Chasing
Westbrook is back, Durant is close, and when that dynamic duo is healthy, they are among the most dominant tandems in the NBA. Through 16 games, Oklahoma City finds themselves is 5.5 games back of the Phoenix Suns for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and that isn’t an insurmountable position to be in. There is no reason to think the Dallas Mavericks or Los Angeles Clippers will fall off enough to completely miss the postseason, but the one team that it seems the Thunder really have a chance to overtake for a playoff spot is the Suns. There is enough time that if they can stay healthy once Durant and Westbrook return, they could climb further than the eighth seed. At the very least, though, Phoenix should be a team that they overtake for one of the Western Conference playoff spots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkmGi0Ka4hw
What They Will Need To Do
The Mavericks were the eighth seed in the Western Conference a year ago with a 49-33 record, which means Oklahoma City would have to go 45-21 the rest of the way to match that record. One issue is that it might take 50 wins or more to clinch that eighth spot. The Thunder posted a 59-23 record a year ago even though Westbrook missed some time and if they can match that .720 win percentage over their final 66 games, they will go 47-19 the rest of the way. That might not be good enough. They have a steep hill to climb.
Are They A Valuable Sleeper Pick?
Oklahoma City is currently listed at +1500 to win the Western Conference and while that’s better odds than they would have been available at had Durant and Westbrook not been hurtm there isn’t enough value there to make them a quality sleeper pick. Consider that the Memphis Grizzlies are listed at +1300 to win the Western Conference and they are tied for the best record in the NBA with a chance to get home advantage come playoff time. That’s a much better position to take the Grizzlies in then to gamble on Oklahoma City when they have to rally just to make the playoffs and then face an uphill climb on the road through a difficult Western Conference when they might be the third or fourth-best team anyway. Some people might make a small play on the Thunder with the hope that they can pull off the incredible turnaround but it’s probably better to stay away altogether.
