NBA Previews for March 18, 2017.
San Antonio Spurs (52-15) at Memphis Grizzlies (39-30), 9 p.m. EST
Line: Spurs -3.5. Total 198.
The public will be all over the Spurs tonight with the small number to cover on the road and the incredible road record San Antonio has at the moment (27-7). Despite that, the Spurs are only 19-15 ATS (Against The Spread) away from home.
The Grizzlies held serve at home against the Spurs back on February 6, with an 89-74 victory over San Antonio. However, MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard did not play that game for the Spurs, who only shot 36.6% from the field in that loss.
Memphis is also in the midst of a “chart-play”, which is a play where a recent streak ends and then immediately reverses itself. The Grizzlies lost 5 straight games, straight up and ATS, before ending that streak this week. Now they are currently on a 3-game winning streak and have covered the spread in all three games.
The Spurs are 12-2 straight up after losses, but only 8-6 ATS in their previous 14 losses this season. San Antonio seems to be primed for some overs now as they have LaMarcus Aldridge and Leonard back from a heart arrhythmia and a concussion, respectively. The Spurs have gone over the total their last two games after going under in 8 of their previous 10 games.
San Antonio is just one game behind the Golden State Warriors for the #1 seed in the Western Conference.
NBA Previews, Game #2:
Houston Rockets (47-22) at Denver Nuggets (33-35), 9 p.m. EST
Line: Rockets -2. Total: 238.
I believe this is the second highest total released this season and I am not really scared to take it over as these teams can score.
The Rockets are ranked #4 in Pace, ranked #1 in Offensive Rating and #16 in Defensive Rating, out of the 30 teams in the league. Houston is just 36-32-1 to the over on the season, because they have had a lot of big totals to get over all season long.
The Nuggets are ranked #9 in Pace, ranked #4 in Offensive Rating and #29 in Defensive Rating. Denver is 43-24-1 to the over this season.
I wondered whether the Rockets would make a bit of an effort on defense tonight after giving up 128 points last night. They are 5-3 to the over in their previous 8 games following a game where they gave up at least 120 points this season. So I do not see defense being a paramount concern for either team on Saturday.
The public will be all over Houston tonight with the low spread. I would be careful here as Denver has won four straight games straight up and ATS.
There is a new triple-double machine in the league and his name is Nikola Jokic. The second-year center from Serbia has five triple-doubles on the season and four of those have come since the Nuggets traded away Jusuf Nurkic to the Portland trail Blazers before the trade deadline in mid-February. In fact, all five of Jokic’s triple-doubles on the season have occurred in his last 18 games played.
Denver remains 2.5 games ahead of the Blazers for the #8 seed and final playoff berth in the Western Conference.
NBA Previews, Game #3:
Milwaukee Bucks (34-34) at Golden State Warriors (54-14), 10:30 p.m. EST
Line: Warriors -11.5. Total: 216.5.
Golden State has been the easiest team in the league to handicap since Kevin Durant sprained his MCL on February 28 against the Wizards at the Verizon Center.
The Warriors are 2-6 ATS and 7-1 to the under in the eight games with Durant out of the lineup. That includes Golden State wiping the floor with Orlando on Thursday with their 122-92 win at Oracle Arena.
So we have a “chart-play” on the Warriors here to cover the spread while the under is still in play as they have gone under five straight games and 10 out of their last 11 games.
The Bucks had the worst ATS record in the league until they covered 7 out of 8 games before losing to the spread Friday night against the Lakers.
Golden State has slipped down the ATS standings and is now #25 in the league while the Bucks are ranked #26 ATS.
Milwaukee is 6-8 ATS on the back-end of a back-to-back. However, they have covered their last four in a row in this spot after the 2-8 ATS start to the season in this situational spot.
The Warriors looked like the Warriors of the last two-and-a-half seasons before Durant got hurt on Thursday night, shooting 57.5% from the field with 36 assists. However, their opponent was a terrible Orlando team, so we may have to take that performance with a grain of salt.
Milwaukee has played Golden State tough the last two seasons, covering the spread in all three meetings. The Bucks beat them at Milwaukee last year by 13 points before losing to the Warriors at Oracle by 9. The Bucks lost to the Warriors by 3 on November 19 of this season at Milwaukee.
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Look for more NBA Previews for Saturday on the GMS site.
