It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the New Orleans Pelicans (12-13) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (12-10) to the Smoothie King Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 5, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans.
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans Betting Prediction
The Mavericks come in on a high note after beating the Portland Trail Blazers in their last contest, 111-102, as 2.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (213) finished under the O/U total of 223.5. The Mavericks forced 18 turnovers and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.8 (above their season average of 23.6). DeAndre Jordan led the way for Dallas, finishing with 12 points and 17 rebounds.
In the Pelicans’ last game, they lost a tough one to the Los Angeles Clippers, 129-126, despite being 1.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (255) finished well over the projected point total of 234.5. Getting to the free throw line was one of Los Angeles’ largest advantages. They had 30 free throw attempts, while New Orleans had 22. New Orleans’ Jrue Holiday had 32 points and 14 assists in the contest.
After the Pelicans won three out of four contests against the Mavericks last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent matchup, New Orleans won 115-105. The Pelicans’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Mavericks. New Orleans had a rate of 22.5, while Dallas posted a mark of 19.6.
Dallas comes into the game with records of 12-10 straight up (SU) and 14-7 against the spread (ATS). Of the Mavericks’ 21 games that accepted bets, 12 have gone over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, New Orleans owns records of 12-13 SU and 11-14 ATS. Games involving the Pelicans also tend to finish over the projected point total (56.0 percent).
Harrison Barnes has averaged 24 points over the last five games for Dallas.
It will be a battle of conflicting styles as the up-and-down Pelicans (ranked fourth in the league in possessions per game) will look to push the more methodical Mavericks (15th in possessions per game).
Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Dallas is 5-5 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 5 unders.
At home, New Orleans is 6-6 ATS with 7 overs, 4 unders and 1 push.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 3-1 and New Orleans is 2-0.
The Mavericks are 12-9 when they score above 100 points, while the Pelicans are 12-12.
Dallas ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (45.3) while New Orleans ranks 25th (51.7).
The Pelicans rank third in assists per game (26.9) while the Mavericks rank 18th (22.8).
New Orleans averages 13.4 fast break points per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Dallas ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (15.6).
The Mavericks average 33.1 three pointers per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 21st in three pointers allowed per game (32.6).
Dallas ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.6) while New Orleans ranks 15th (5.1).
The Pelicans rank 4 in rebounds per game (48.04) while the Mavericks rank 14 (45.5).
Dallas averages 7.863636363636363 steals per game, which ranks 13 in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 22 in steals allowed per game (8.96).
The Pelicans rank 1 in second chance points per game (17.32) while the Mavericks rank 8 (14.772727272727273).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.2, up from 2.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 115.6 points per game (2.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 114.4 points per game (2.3 below their season average).
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