The Minnesota Timberwolves (46-35) and Denver Nuggets (46-35) start Western Conference play at Target Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 11, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 213 points with Minnesota opening as a 3.5-point favorite.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Prediction
The Nuggets will be looking for similar success after beating the Portland Trail Blazers in their last game, 88-82. The Nuggets made 20 of their 26 free throws (76.9 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 11.3 (better than their season average of 13.0). Nikola Jokic played a massive role in the victory for Denver, accumulating 15 points, 20 rebounds and 11 assists on his way to his ninth triple-double this year.
In the Timberwolves’ last game, they had no trouble getting past the Memphis Grizzlies, 113-94. The Timberwolves had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 41.9 (above their season average of 24.3) and held the Grizzlies to an effective field goal percentage of 0.441 (below their season average of 0.500). With 24 points and 18 rebounds, Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns played well.
Minnesota could dominate on the offensive side of the ball as their high-powered offense faces off against one of the NBA’s worst defenses. The Timberwolves rank fourth in offensive efficiency, while Denver ranks 26th in defensive efficiency. Also, the Nuggets rank 23rd in turnover percentage (14.4 percent), while the Timberwolves rank fifth in opponents’ turnover percentage (14.8 percent).
Denver heads into the game with records of 46-35 straight up (SU) and 37-41-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Nuggets games, with 41 overs compared to 39 unders.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is 46-35 SU and 37-41-3 ATS. Of the Timberwolves’ 81 games, 44 have finished over the total.
Jokic and Will Barton have played well over the last five games for Denver. Jokic has averaged 25.4 points, 12.0 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Barton has recorded 20.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists a game during that span.
The Timberwolves have won two out of three against the Nuggets this season, but fell short the last time these two teams met, 100-96. Minnesota covered as a 5-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 196 points, which was 28 points below the projected point total of 224 points. Making free throws was one of Denver’s biggest strengths. They were 19-22 (86.4 percent), while the Timberwolves were 12-16 (75.0 percent). In the loss, Towns had a double-double with 26 points and 13 rebounds.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 17-21-2 ATS with 21 overs, 18 unders and 1 push.
At home, Minnesota is 20-19-1 ATS with 23 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Denver is 15-2 and Minnesota is 19-4.
The Nuggets are 39-25 when they score more than 100 points, while the Timberwolves are 43-22.
Minnesota averages 17.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Denver ranks last in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.7).
The Nuggets rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.9) while the Timberwolves rank last (22.5).
Minnesota averages 49.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Denver ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.3).
The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Nuggets rank 18th (8.0).
Denver ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while Minnesota ranks 20th (12.9).
The Nuggets rank eighth in fast break points per game (13.6) while the Timberwolves rank 25th (9.6).
Denver averages 25.2 assists per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Minnesota ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (24.0).
The Nuggets average 4.9 blocks per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 12th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
Denver is second in the league with 41.6 rebounds allowed per game while Minnesota is third with 41.8 rebounds allowed per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.0, up from 1.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 102.4 points per game (7.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.6 points per game (6.7 below their season average).
*****
