It will be a battle between Northwest Division opponents when the Oklahoma City Thunder (14-15) welcome the Denver Nuggets (16-13) to Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 18, 2017.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 208 points with Oklahoma City opening as a 5.5-point favorite.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction
The Nuggets come in on a high note after beating the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, 117-111. Denver’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over New Orleans. The Nuggets had a rate of 23.9 (below their season average of 27.7), while the Pelicans posted a mark of 15.9 (below the 22.4 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season). Nikola Jokic played a key role for Denver with 13 points and 11 rebounds.
In the Thunder’s last game, they fell to the New York Knicks, 111-96. New York made good use of their 26 trips to the charity stripe, converting on 21 of them (80.8 percent). Oklahoma City, on the other hand, was just 12-20 (60.0 percent). Russell Westbrook had a good game for Oklahoma City, leading the team in scoring with 25 points on 9-for-18 shooting.
Points at the line might be rare for Oklahoma City in this meeting. The Thunder currently rank 21st in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.183, while Denver ranks fourth in FTA rate allowed (0.167). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Nuggets, which ranks 23rd in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.3 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Thunder, which forces the most turnovers in the NBA (17.2 percent).
Denver comes into the game with records of 16-13 straight up (SU) and 12-16-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Nuggets games, with 15 unders compared to 14 overs.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns records of 14-15 SU and 9-19-1 ATS. Vegas is known to place the total high when the Thunder are involved, as 17 of their 29 games have gone under the total.
Gary Harris has averaged 20.2 points, 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals over the last five games for Denver.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Carmelo Anthony scored a game-high 28 points in the first matchup, in which the Thunder lost 102-94, unable to cover as 2-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 196 points, which was 19.5 points below the projected point total of 215.5 points. Denver’s 0.207 free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Oklahoma City, who had a rate of 0.078.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 4-11-1 ATS with 8 overs and 8 unders.
Oklahoma City is 5-7-1 ATS at home with 8 unders and 5 overs.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Denver is 7-1 and Oklahoma City is 10-4.
The Nuggets are 14-8 when they reach 100 points, while the Thunder are 12-6.
Oklahoma City averages 19.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the league. Denver ranks last in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.2).
The Thunder rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (40.1) while the Nuggets rank 26th (46.6).
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (10.0) while Denver ranks 16th in steals allowed per game (8.1).
The Thunder average 14.0 fast break points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 19th in fast break points allowed per game (11.4).
Denver averages 30.3 three pointers per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Oklahoma City ranks 21st in three pointers allowed per game (29.8).
The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.5) while the Thunder rank eighth in second chance points allowed per game (11.4).
Denver ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (41.3) while Oklahoma City ranks ninth (42.1).
The Nuggets rank seventh in assists per game (23.4) while the Thunder rank ninth in assists allowed per game (21.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 3-1-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.6, up from 0.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 104.0 points per game (1.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.0 points per game (7.6 above their season average).
