The Dallas Mavericks (9-7) will be at home when they face off against the Denver Nuggets (6-10). Action begins at 8:30 pm ET on Saturday, Nov. 28 and can be seen on NBA, FSW and AL2.
The Mavericks are expecting a better outcome after their 88-83 loss to the Spurs on Wednesday. Despite the loss, Dirk Nowitzki earned his third double-double this season with 13 points and 14 rebounds. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 91-80 loss against that same Spurs squad on Friday. Denver still lost despite the best efforts of Danilo Gallinari, who recorded his third double-double of the season with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
This one isn’t expected to be close when the Mavericks, a big nine-point favorite, take on the Nuggets. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 209 points. The Mavericks have gone 9-7 Straight Up (SU) and 10-6 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (7-3). Dallas’s three-point defense can be considered one of the best in the league. The Mavericks allow a .311 opponent three-point field goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the league.
In the other locker room, the Nuggets have a record of 7-8-1 ATS and 6-10 SU. Against the Western Conference, Denver is 5-10 SU and 7-7-1 ATS.
The conference foes meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Dallas won the last game in the matchup, but the win was not enough to overtake Denver in the recent head-to-head series. Its record is now 4-6 SU over the most recent 10 meetings. With a 5-4-1 record, the Mavericks have the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Dal, ATS Winner – Dal, O/U – Under
Notes
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Dallas’s last 18 games at home.
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games when playing Denver.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 6 games when playing at home against Denver.
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver.
Dallas is 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Denver.
Dallas ranks 16th in points per game with 100.6, while Denver ranks 22nd in points allowed with an average of 104.4 given up.
Denver ranks eighth in points allowed per road game (106.0 PPG), while Dallas ranks 17th in points per home game with 100.3.
Dallas has a 7-1 record when opponents score fewer than 100 points. Denver has yet to win a game in which it scores fewer than 100 (0-7).
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Mavericks are just 2-6 this season. Denver is a winning 6-3 when it hits the century mark.
The Nuggets have a defensive rating of 106.0 (ranked 24th). The Mavericks rank 16th for their offensive rating of 101.5.
The Dallas Mavericks average 99.1 possessions and 1.015 points per possession in games this season. The Denver Nuggets average fewer possessions with 98.5, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.004.
The Dallas Mavericks average an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% this season. The Denver Nuggets have an underachieving record of 2-9 when opponents have an EFF% of 49.1% or greater.
Dallas makes an average of 21.8 assists per game (ranked 13th), while Denver makes 21.7 assists per game (ranked 15th).
Dallas makes an average of 3.7 blocks per game (ranked 28th). Denver ranks higher in blocks with 4.9 (ranked 16th).
Dallas is ranked 30th when it comes to offensive rebounding. Denver ranks 27th in defensive rebounds.
The Dallas Mavericks average 6.8 steals per game. When giving up 6 or more steals, the Denver Nuggets have a poor record (5-8) this season.
