The Sacramento Kings (12-25) meet the Denver Nuggets (21-17) at Golden 1 Center. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 6, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports – California.
Denver is a 4-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 207 points.
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings ATS Prediction
The last time the Nuggets played, they beat the Utah Jazz, 99-91. Denver’s free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Utah. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.105 (matching their season average), while the Jazz posted a mark of 0.036 (below their season average of 0.196). Denver was led by Trey Lyles, who had 26 points and seven rebounds.
The Kings got blown out by the Charlotte Hornets in their last outing, 131-111. Charlotte’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Sacramento. The Hornets had a rate of 3.0 (better than their season average of 11.7), while the Kings posted a mark of 13.6. Sacramento’s Zach Randolph had a good performance, leading both teams in scoring with 24 points on 11-for-18 shooting.
Sacramento could have trouble getting to the charity stripe in this battle. The Kings rank 30th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.147, while Denver ranks third in FTA rate allowed (0.165). Furthermore, the Nuggets, who rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.6 percent), will face off against the Kings, who rank 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.1 percent).
Denver comes into the contest with records of 21-17 straight up (SU) and 18-18-1 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Nuggets have a slight tendency to finish under the total (54.1 percent).
Meanwhile, Sacramento is 12-25 SU and 15-19-3 ATS. Contrary to Denver, just over half of Kings games have finished over the total.
Jamal Murray and Lyles have played at a high level over the last five games for Denver. Murray has averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Lyles has put up 17.2 points and 8.6 rebounds a game during that span.
The Nuggets have won both matchups against the Kings this season, including a 16-point victory in their last matchup. Denver covered as a 5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 212 points, which was just 2.5 points above the projected point total of 209.5 points. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.6 vs. 12.5) and had a better free throw rate (0.174 vs. 0.093). Nikola Jokic recorded a double-double with 16 points and 14 rebounds.
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 8-11-1 ATS on the road with 11 unders and 9 overs.
At home, Sacramento is 8-9 ATS with 9 overs and 8 unders.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Sacramento is 7-2 and Denver is 11-2.
The Nuggets are 17-11 when they reach the century mark, while the Kings are 8-6.
Denver ranks fifth in rebounds per game (45.3) while Sacramento ranks 27th (40.1).
The Nuggets rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.6) while the Kings rank 29th (22.4).
Denver ranks sixth in assists per game (23.6) while Sacramento ranks 27th (20.8).
The Nuggets rank fourth in fast break points per game (14.2) while the Kings rank 24th (8.8).
Sacramento ranks seventh in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while Denver ranks 26th (18.8).
The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Kings rank 20th (11.6).
Denver ranks third in points in the paint per game (49.2) while Sacramento ranks 17th (42.4).
The Kings rank 13th in steals per game (7.8) while the Nuggets rank 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Sacramento is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.4, up from 2.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 102.4 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.6 points per game (8.2 above their season average).
