The Minnesota Twins are set to host their divisional rival Detroit Tigers at Target Field. Fox Sports North will broadcast the matchup and the first pitch will be at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins Odds
Detroit (+145) is entering this one as the underdog to Minnesota (-155) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 9.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -110 for both the over and the under. Runline odds sit at -150 for betting the Tigers +1.5 runs and +130 for the Twins -1.5 runs.
The Tigers have gone 20-27 SU this year and are 27-19 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.2 units for moneyline gamblers through the early portions of the year and 4.6 units ATS. Detroit has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Twins, on the other hand, are 20-23 SU and 24-18 ATS. They’ve lost 4.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 3.8 units ATS. Minnesota has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.
Minnesota games have a 22-19-1 over/under record so far in 2018. The Tigers have an over/under record of 21-24-1.
Matthew Boyd is getting the nod for the visiting Tigers. The southpaw Boyd is 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 41 strikeouts. He has yet to face Minnesota this year, but he did make six starts against the Twins in 2017, compiling a 2-1 record against them with a 4.01 ERA and 33 strikeouts.
The Twins are putting the ball in the hands of righty Lance Lynn (1-4, 7.47 ERA), who’s got 41 strikeouts and 29 walks, as well as a WHIP of 2.04. Lynn did not record a start against the Tigers in 2017.
As a unit, Minnesota’s pitchers have given up 4.7 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 4.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. In eight divisional games, Twins starters have an ERA of 3.18 and the bullpen’s ERA is 1.95.
Minnesota’s offense has produced 4.2 runs per contest, including 4.4 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .240/.339/.364 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
Shortstop Eduardo Escobar and outfielder Eddie Rosario have led the Twins’ batters so far. Escobar is slashing .292/.347/.539 with seven home runs, 21 RBIs and 25 runs scored, and Rosario is batting .292 with nine homers, 27 RBIs and 29 runs scored.
Rosario did not do particularly well against left-handed pitching at home last season. Across 90 such plate appearances, he slashed .291/.300/.407 (a drop from his total season line of .290/.328/.507).
In the visiting dugout, Detroit’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.20 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.58, along with a K-per-9 of 8.19.
Tigers hitters have slashed .254/.313/.407 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Detroit’s hitters have been powered by right fielder Nicholas Castellanos and third baseman Jeimer Candelario. Castellanos is hitting .316/.367/.500 with five home runs, 26 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Candelario is slashing .272/.359/.497 with five homers, 16 RBIs and 21 runs scored.
Castellanos seemed to take a step back when hitting righties on the road last season, putting up a slash line of .212/.264/.360 across 239 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .272/.320/.490).
The Tigers have lost 1.9 units and are 19-15 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 13 of those games, as opposed to 20 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Twins have lost 0.6 units and are 5-4 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in five of those games, compared to four which went under the total.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Tigers, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Tigers have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Twins have hit seven over their last 10.
Detroit has recorded 18.6 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 outings and 15.4 over its last five.
The Tigers have lost five of their last six games SU.
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