The Carolina Panthers traded former first-rounder Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo midway through 2017, thereby creating a need to address in the offseason. They decided to stock up on Maryland Terrapins, trading for Torrey Smith before adding DJ Moore (no periods) with the 24th overall pick in the draft.
MOORE weapons for QB1!#PanthersDraft pic.twitter.com/ts3hzBqZfl
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) April 27, 2018
Moore was the first wide receiver off the board, though he was the latest first receiver taken since 2013 (DeAndre Hopkins, 27th). He finds himself in an ideal landing spot that could have him in the Rookie of the Year conversation at the end of the season.
Reasons to Get Excited
Cam Newton
Much like fellow rookie receiver Calvin Ridley, we have to take notice when a top fantasy quarterback and former MVP lands one of the top receivers in the draft. Cam Newton was a top-three fantasy quarterback in three of the last five seasons. Granted, Newton’s completion percentage and QB rating are below par, but he throws enough touchdown passes to give his wide receivers a boost.
Moore is also likely to do plenty of damage after the catch, meaning he should get his fair share of short, easy completions. Considering the quarterback troubles Maryland had last season, Newton will be a massive upgrade.
Depth Chart
Moore could conceivably be Carolina’s top receiver from the beginning of the season. He only needs to beat out the typically inconsistent Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith. If the high praise from Carolina legend Steve Smith is to be believed, that will happen in very short order.
I appreciate the love @89SteveSmith✊🏽 Time to work!! pic.twitter.com/0v8bNRPUq4
— DJ Moore💫 (@idjmoore) April 28, 2018
Athleticism
Moore is a good enough athlete to score from anywhere. Some would argue he’s among the most athletic receivers of the last two decades.
The DJ Moore sell:
More athletic than 97% of WRs entering the NFL over the last 20 years. Already wins small in terms of picking up yards after the catch, even on contact, & is improving his routes
And flashes winning big with a 6'0 frame
All in all, you have a big play threat https://t.co/lyQIP05nTU
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) April 27, 2018
He was a playmaker at Maryland despite subpar quarterbacking and few other offensive weapons to draw attention away from him. With a better supporting cast, he could definitely be a playmaker once again with the Panthers.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Rookie Receivers
Everyone rejoiced at the arrival of the rookie wide receiver when the likes of Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and especially Odell Beckham Jr. carried their fair share of fantasy teams to championships in 2014. The first-round receivers since then have not been able to follow in their footsteps.
Only Amari Cooper followed up his first-round pedigree with a 1,000-yard season. The next best first-rounder over that stretch was Will Fuller, who managed 635 yards and was WR65 in PPR leagues. Recent history is not on Moore’s side.
Carolina Receiver Production
Cam Newton’s top receivers have been serviceable, but don’t tend to produce at a top-tier level. Over the last three seasons, Carolina’s top fantasy receivers in PPR leagues were: Ted Ginn (WR33, 2015), Kelvin Benjamin (WR27, 2016) and Devin Funchess (WR20, 2017). Each was a veteran who had at least one year of experience with Newton. Aside from Benjamin, rookie receivers have not done well in Carolina in the Cam Newton era.
Red Zone
The Panthers have one of the best tight ends in the league in Greg Olsen and a big red zone target in Funchess. At six feet and 210 pounds, Moore isn’t likely to be a prime option inside the 20s. Even Christian McCaffrey could be ahead of him, as McCaffrey was the fourth-most targeted running back in the red zone in 2017. Moore will need plenty of volume between the 20s to produce, and that won’t happen if he suffers the same fate as other recent first-round wideouts.
Conclusion
Rookies are volatile in general, but Moore is especially worrisome in that regard. We could tell ourselves the story of him becoming the next Steve Smith and taking the league by storm. It’s also possible he struggles with route running, doesn’t earn Newton’s confidence and fails to give fantasy owners anything consistent, following in Corey Davis’ footsteps as the highly-rated receiver you want to drop but can’t.
In other words, where you draft Moore depends on your tolerance or aversion to risk. If the upside is too tantalizing, take a shot on him around the seventh round when the likes of Emmanuel Sanders and Marvin Jones start coming off the board. If not, see if he falls to the ninth or tenth and choose him in favor of Randall Cobb or Robby Anderson. Either way, having him occupy a spot at the top of your bench would be ideal.
