The Anaheim Ducks surged to the top spot in the Pacific Division for the fifth consecutive season. Randy Carlyle’s reunion with the Ducks organization has gone surprisingly well, as the maligned former coach of the Maple Leafs has returned to California and led the Ducks to 46 wins and 105 points.
They finished the regular season on a four-game winning streak, and have not lost in regulation since March 10th.
Calgary let former Jack Adams winner Bob Hartley go after last season, bringing in Glen Gulutzan to man the team. The Flames have overcome a lot of adversity this season. Brian Elliott got off to maybe the worst start of any goaltender this season. Johnny Gaudreau missed a month of action with an injury, forcing him out of 10 games.
But they just kept winning. They simply would not die. Though they sputtered at the end of the regular season, they still stunned the NHL by going on a dominant 13-1-1 sprint from February into March. Calgary finished with 94 points.
The last time the Flames made the postseason was 2014-2015, where the Ducks dispatched them in five games.
Thanks for the support, @WHLHitmen! pic.twitter.com/fUF0fOyYm5
— Calgary Flames (@NHLFlames) April 13, 2017
Anaheim is a -165 to win the series.
Let’s take a look at the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Ducks.
Calgary and Anaheim are far from the most dangerous offensive teams in the league. Calgary has the 17th best offense in the league, with the Ducks right behind them trailing by 0.03 points.
But when it comes to head-to-head matchups, the Ducks have the upper hand. Dating back to the start of last season, the Ducks have won nine of their last 10 games against the Calgary Flames. This season, Anaheim scored 17 goals in five games against the Flames. They played each other twice in the final week of the regular season, and Anaheim won both times.
The one victory Calgary scored over Anaheim this season was an 8-3 track meet back in December.
Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kessler and Corey Perry get all the glory for being the big-name attractions in Anaheim. But the true difference makers in this series are going to be Rickard Rakell and Patrick Eaves.
Rakell led the team in goal scoring with 33 tallies this season. He was the only Duck to so much as crack 25 goals. Eaves, meanwhile, was acquired at the trade deadline from the Dallas Stars. With the Stars, Eaves bounced back and forth from the top line to the fourth line with seemingly no middleground. His offensive explosion made him a hot commodity, and the Ducks put him right alongside Rakell and Getzlaf.
Eleven of Eaves’ 32 goals this season were on the Ducks. Considering his previous career high in goals was 20 back in his rookie season with Ottawa in 2005-2006, that’s pretty darn impressive.
Calgary’s depth will be the only way they make noise. Bottom six forwards are vital to playoff success, so a lot rides on the Kris Versteeg-Sam Bennett-Alex Chiasson line producing chances. Also, if Troy Brouwer could not be awful as he has been this season for the Flames, that would be a plus.
Defense: advantage Flames.
Calgary wins this almost by default, considering the Ducks are missing three defensemen from their lineup.
Obviously, this does not count Simon Despres, who has missed the entire season with a concussion. Clayton Stoner had his season end prematurely because of abdominal surgery, and Cam Fowler injured his knee and will miss the next two-to-six weeks (because of a hit by Mark Giordano). Korbinian Holzer has not been named as a starter as he is attending to personal matters in Germany.
ICYMI: Giordano hit on Fowler pic.twitter.com/hTkAaL6iWb
— 🦆DucksNPucks🏒 (@DucksNPucks) April 5, 2017
At least Calgary is fully healthy. Dougie Hamilton finished with 50 points on the blueline, and Mark Giordano had 39. Giordano is one of those veterans that has not really had a chance to prove himself in the postseason. At age 33, he has played in only four postseason games. This will be a great chance for him in this series to leave his mark.
Special teams: advantage Ducks.
Calgary has the better powerplay. Anaheim has the better penalty kill. So how do we break the tie?
Well, the Flames’ powerplay ranks as 10th in the NHL at 20.2%. The Ducks are only 1.5% behind them, but they are all the way down at 17th in the league. In their head-to-head matchups this season, the Ducks went 6-for-20 on the man advantage. Calgary went 4-for-17. Generally speaking, it’s pretty even. Both teams have lethal playmakers that can weave magic if given time and space.
Anaheim has three players with 20 powerplay points this season. Calgary does not have any.
The Ducks to have the fourth-best penalty kill in the league. Calgary is 12th at 81.6%.
It’s a close call, but the Ducks simply seem to have more weapons at their disposal and are more capable of shutting things down when down a man.
Goaltending: advantage Ducks.
John Gibson will be the Ducks’ starting goaltending for Game 1. Lots of credit goes to Jonathan Bernier, who went on quite a tear down the stretch with John Gibson laid up with an injury. But Gibson has been alright since coming back.
In three starts, Gibson went 2-0-1 with a shutout. He finished with six shutouts on the year.
Brian Elliott, who backstopped the St. Louis Blues to the Western Conference Final last season, will be in net for the Flames. Even if he got into trouble, Chad Johnson has been hurt with an issue with his leg. So, Ells is on his own here. Which could be a good thing. When he was in St. Louis, there was always a sense that someone was in the wings, be it Jaroslav Halak earlier in his career or Jake Allen later in it.
Elliott had a personal 11-game winning streak when the Flames were rolling from February into March. He unfortunately lost four of his last five starts to end the year. After the final win of his streak, he went 3-5-0 and allowed 23 goals in the process.
This will be a pretty even draw. I don’t much believe that Gibson is a difference-maker in the series, but he is certainly a step up from Jonathan Bernier. Elliott has playoff experience, and is capable of stealing games on any given night. While I give the slight edge to Anaheim solely because of their own defensive abilities as a team, I really don’t think it will be goaltending that wins this series.
Bold Predictions:
1) Troy Brouwer will score at least once, because I called him out for being a bad fourth liner. It’s the Tanner Glass effect. He had 13 points in 20 playoff games last season as a Blue.
2) Anaheim will not lose at home. They have won 25 consecutive home games against the Calgary Flames.
3) Tempers will flare. Cam Fowler was knocked out of the postseason because of Giordano. There will be fights. Plural.
Josh Manson took offense to Mark Giordano hurting Cam Fowler, so Manson uppercutted the living crap out of Giordano. pic.twitter.com/50htt2khWi
— Justin Russo (@FlyByKnite) April 5, 2017
Prediction: Ducks in 6.
