Atlantic Coast foes will lock horns when the North Carolina State Wolfpack (11-8) face off against the No. 20 Duke Blue Devils (14-5) at RBC Center. Action begins at 2:00 pm ET on Saturday, Jan. 23 and can be seen on CBS.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack enter this game hoping for similar success after topping Pittsburgh 78-61 on Tuesday. Anthony Barber was the game’s leading scorer with 31 points on 8-for-18 shooting. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their close 64-62 loss against Syracuse on Monday. Duke lost despite the best efforts of Marshall Plumlee, who recorded his fourth double-double of the season with 19 points and 17 rebounds.
Plumlee has been hot for the Blue Devils, averaging 14.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 2.2 blocks over the past five games.
North Carolina State could dominate the offensive glass in this matchup, as it’s ranked 11th in the nation in OR% at 39.1%. Alternatively, Duke ranks 306th in the nation on the defensive backboards with a DR% of 66.9%. The Blue Devils should also expect to protect the ball well. They rank eighth at avoiding errors (TO% of 14.6%). Conversely, the Wolfpack force the 38th-fewest turnovers in the nation (opponents’ TO% of 16.4%).
Duke takes on the North Carolina State Wolfpack as a five-point favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 152 points. The Wolfpack come into this game 11-8 Straight Up (SU) and 8-7-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Expect to see a lot of second-chance opportunities for North Carolina State in this matchup, which is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 15.7 offensive boards per game. Not making mistakes with the ball is a staple of the North Carolina State offense, which averages just 11.3 turnovers per game.
Over on the other bench, the Blue Devils have records of 9-9 ATS and 14-5 SU. Offensively, they average 85.6 points per game, which is good for fifth in the country. The Blue Devils rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, ranking 43rd in the nation with 168 made (8.0 per game). The Blue Devils have controlled the offensive glass with an average of 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, 44th in the country. The Blue Devils are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking 38th in Division I at 1.37. Shifting to the other side of the court, blocking shots is an area where Duke has excelled. The Blue Devils average 5.5 blocks per game, making them one of the best in the nation.
This game marks the season’s first head-to-head clash between these conference foes. Their previous game was a Wolfpack victory, but the win was not enough for them to overtake Duke in their recent head-to-head series. Their record is now 3-7 SU over the last few meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 5-5 record. Duke held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, North Carolina State never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke, O/U – Over
Notes
North Carolina State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina State’s last 9 games.
North Carolina State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home.
North Carolina State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Duke.
The total has gone OVER in 15 of North Carolina State’s last 19 games when playing Duke.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Carolina State’s last 5 games when playing at home against Duke.
Duke averages 85.6 points per game (ranked fifth). The North Carolina State defense has done poorly this season, giving up 70.0 PPG (ranked 146th).
Duke scores 78.5 points per away game (ranked 29th). North Carolina State ranks a poor 263rd in points allowed at home, allowing 72.2 points.
Ranked second, the Duke Blue Devils have an offensive rating of 123.7. The North Carolina State Wolfpack, on the other hand, rank 176th with a defensive rating of 102.4.
North Carolina State has an average field goal percentage of 41.5%. Duke is a solid 8-4 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack rank higher based on their field goal percentage (296th) than their effective field goal percentage (312th). The Duke Blue Devils rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (25th) than their field goal percentage (35th).
Duke ranks 38th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.37. North Carolina State is ranked lower at 192nd with an A/TO of 1.02.
North Carolina State, the eighth-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 42.6 rebounds per game. Duke ranks 79th with 38.8.
North Carolina State ranks 94th in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, Duke ranks 44th.
On average, North Carolina State forces a turnover rate of 16.4%. When Duke turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 4-2 record.
