More than a third of the way through the 2026 MLB season and closing on the halfway point, several high-profile players are producing well below recent norms. Small-sample excuses are fading; analysts suggest regression to the mean may apply in some cases but caution remains warranted when evaluating early-season struggles.
Manny Machado’s status as an elite middle-of-the-order hitter has come into question after a brutal start. His average dipped to .175 and fell as low as .166 last weekend before settling near .172, and he publicly complained about the game’s evolution and analytics making play harder. The data point to waning bat speed: fast swings (75 mph or faster) comprised more than 66% of his swings in 2023, then fell to 53% in 2024, 43% in 2025 and 41% so far in 2026, according to the analytics.
Machado still ranks in the 77th percentile in bat speed and has shown power with at least 11 home runs, but measurable losses help explain the slump. Fly-ball damage is similar to 2025 — .856 slugging versus .805 this year, though average exit velocity on fly balls is down 3.7 mph. The larger issue is grounders: Machado hit .268 on ground balls in 2024, .242 in 2025 and just .101 in 2026. If his ground-ball average matched 2025, he would have roughly 11 more hits and an average near .220. Verdict: real decline in performance indicators, with some upside from low BABIP on grounders but enough red flags to question his reliability as a middle-of-the-order bat going forward.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has provided highlight moments — a dramatic walk-off this week was just his second home run of 2026 — yet far fewer long balls than his recent pace. He averaged 24 homers per 133 games over the past three seasons but has only two this year despite a 91st-percentile hard-hit rate. Among 157 qualified hitters, Tatis ranks 15th-highest in ground-ball rate. By comparison, Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero has a similar ground-ball rate and 14 homers, underscoring that Tatis’ power has not translated into expected results.
Early evidence suggests a mix of causes: aging and measurable declines for some veterans, and batted-ball profiles for others. Regression remains possible in certain cases, but the season-old trends and analytics provide tangible reasons for concern about a few marquee names so far in 2026.
