An early awards column is already tracking Offensive Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year markets, with initial attention on Arizona’s No. 3 pick and the Las Vegas Raiders’ rookie quarterback, per the report. The column will follow the Super Bowl, MVP, Coach of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year and other markets throughout the offseason and regular season, the report says.
The Arizona selection is listed at +300 in the market, but the report cautions that the pick carries considerable risk. Arizona has won four games or fewer in three of its last four seasons, and the defense was “bottom-tier basically everywhere,” the report says. That combination makes relying on a rookie running back to produce the volume and season-long narrative necessary for the award a heavy lift.
The report also warns that rookie running back futures and props on struggling teams can be deceptive: volume can look promising until a team falls far behind in games. While the talent and durability may be present, the column argues that the price for that Arizona pick assumes many favorable conditions befall the rookie immediately.
Las Vegas’ rookie, listed at +380, benefits from a clearer offensive framework, the report says. The Raiders finished 3-14 and ranked near the bottom in EPA per play, pass protection, rushing efficiency and overall offensive grading, but offseason moves and roster pieces such as tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty could help a newcomer. Still, the report notes remaining defensive concerns and offensive-line questions, and points out that veteran Kirk Cousins starting early would limit the rookie’s statistical runway.
On the Coach of the Year front, the Raiders’ coach Kubiak sits at +2000 with nine coaches ahead of him, per the report. The column prefers the coaching market at that price because it pays on an organizational turnaround rather than solely on a rookie’s production. The report adds that a jump from three wins to eight would place Kubiak in contention, while a move to six wins likely would not, though it remains early in the cycle.
