The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi on Saturday with a light heavyweight main event between Magomed Ankalaev and Bogdan Guskov at UFC Fight Night. Ankalaev (21-2-1) has not fought since losing his undisputed title in a rematch to Alex Pereira at UFC 320 last October. He will be the third former champion to headline in the promotion’s past two events after last weekend in Oklahoma City, when former middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis defeated former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman by five-round unanimous decision, according to ESPN.
With three former titleholders active this month, ESPN compiled a list of eight former champions and assigned projected chances that each will return to a UFC title fight.
Magomed Ankalaev — last title run March 2025 to October 2025 — is given an 88% chance of getting another title shot, according to ESPN. The outlet cites factors working for and against him: a perceived lack of marketability and a demoralizing first-round knockout loss contrasted with a thin division led by an injured champion in Carlos Ulberg and the possibility of Alex Pereira competing at light heavyweight. ESPN says a win over Guskov would make it difficult to deny Ankalaev another title opportunity on merit.
Dricus du Plessis — last title run January 2024 to August 2025 — is projected at 85% by ESPN. The network notes du Plessis’ standing as a world-class middleweight, a favorable history against current champion Sean Strickland and the possibility of matching up with Khamzat Chimaev, who took the belt in his last title fight. ESPN also says du Plessis likely needs one more win to secure another shot and that the 32-year-old has time to return to the top even if he suffers a setback.
Kamaru Usman — last title run March 2019 to August 2022 — is assigned a 25% chance, according to ESPN. At 39 years old, ESPN identifies age as a significant factor. After his loss to du Plessis in his middleweight debut, Usman sits at No. 11 in the middleweight rankings; ESPN says he would need a win over a top-10 opponent such as Caio Borralho, Joe Pyfer or Anthony Hernandez and a measure of fortune to position himself for another title shot.
Alex Pereira — last title run October 2025 to February 2026 — is projected at 75% by ESPN. The report points out Pereira is also 39 but benefits from competing at heavyweight, where older fighters can remain competitive, and from a relatively sparse landscape at light heavyweight and heavyweight compared with middleweight. ESPN notes Pereira signed a new UFC deal and has shown no interest in slowing down, and it concludes that, barring a sudden decline, he will fight for a UFC title again. Charles Oliveira — last title run May 2021 to May 2022 — is given a 50% chance; ESPN calls that assessment “somewhat tough.”
