When it comes to breaking down the best futures bets in regards to college football win totals, it only makes sense that we would want to compare the most accurate predictions with the Las Vegas odds. We decided to compare the Football Power Index against the sportsbooks futures odds in order to figure out where the best value is. Here is a look at four places where the FPI and Las Vegas betting odds disagree on college football win totals.
USC Trojans
Las Vegas Odds: 10.5 Wins (-150)
FPI Projection: 8.92 Wins
The Football Power Index has the Trojans ranked as the 12th-best team in the country. FPI projected that USC will finish with nine wins. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas sportsbooks have the Trojans win total at 10.5. USC would have to record 12 wins for the OVER bet to hit, which is a gap of three wins compared to the FPI projection. Quarterback Sam Darnold is one of the best prospects in the country but the Trojans have only five returning starters on that side of the football. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 promises to be competitive once again with Washington State and Stanford among those expected to prove tough tests. USC is without a doubt a top-15 team on paper. However, it won’t be easy for them to reach 11 wins.
Utah Utes
Las Vegas Odds: 6.5 Wins (-150 Over)
FPI Projection: 4.68 Wins
It might seem like we are beating up on the Pac-12 a little bit here but the numbers don’t lie. The FPI predicts the Utes to finish with under five wins, while the Las Vegas odds have Utah’s futures line at 6.5 wins. A big part of the problem for the Utes is that they are projected to face the sixth-hardest schedule in the country. They have some tough stretches, like their back-to-back against Stanford and at USC, and home to Washington State followed by a visit to Washington.
According to FPI, the Utes will need to pull off at least four upsets in order to finish with seven wins. The more likely scenario is that a tough schedule results in Utah finishing the season with six wins or fewer and falling below the Las Vegas futures total.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Las Vegas Odds: 7 Wins (-125 Under)
FPI Projection: 5.65 Wins
Nebraska is a team on the rise after registering nine wins in 2016, right? Well, not exactly. The Huskers had the single-worst FPI among Power Five schools that posted nine wins last season. That means Mike Riley and his staff will have its work cut out for them if they are going to avoid disappointment this season. It won’t help that Nebraska is returning only 10 starters combined. Significant roster turnover combined with a tough enough schedule will make it difficult for the Huskers to reach eight wins in 2017.
TCU Horned Frogs
Las Vegas Odds: 7.5 Wins (-125 Over)
FPI Projection: 8.57 Wins
After listing three situations in which the FPI indicates you should take the Under bet on the Las Vegas odds, TCU provides the alternate example. FPI projects the Horned Frogs to finish with 8.57 wins, which is more than the current Las Vegas line of 7.5 wins. A big part of the equation is that TCU might not have been as bad as its six wins indicated a year ago when it lost a pair of double-overtime games to Arkansas and Texas Tech. Also, remember that the Horned Frogs were battered pretty badly when it came to injuries. It’s hard to imagine them enduring those same types of pains this year.
FPI also predicts an improvement on the offensive side of the football this season, which should result in a slight bump in their overall win total. The perception is that Kenny Hill should be better too. Last year, his receivers dropped 38 passes and he threw 13 picks. He’s gotten bigger in the offseason and has looked good in spring practices. If he’s better, this entire offense – and team – will be better.
While the FPI suggests betting the Under for USC, Utah and Wisconsin, the smart pick for TCU is to bet the Over on the Las Vegas line.
Click here to bet on the college football futures for the 2017 college football season right now. DSI will have all of the latest lines, spreads and props for this year’s action!
