The Western Michigan Broncos (8-4) and the Air Force Falcons (9-3) will meet in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Saturday. The game will begin Saturday at 5:45 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
Air Force barely got past Colorado State 27-24 in its last game. Garrett Brown had a solid outing in the win, registering five catches for 88 yards. Western Michigan dropped one to Northern Illinois 31-21 in its last game. Corey Davis had a good game for the Broncos, totaling five receptions for 59 yards and one TD. Daniel Braverman finished with 88 yards on five catches.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the Falcons-Broncos game this week is set at 55 points and Western Michigan is a slender three-point favorite. Sitting at 9-3 Straight Up (SU) and 7-5 Against The Spread (ATS), the Falcons will look to improve as they head into Week 17. In their five most recent matchups, the Falcons went 4-1 both SU and ATS. Over the last five games, Air Force’s rushing attack has thrived, averaging 270.4 yards per game in that time span. Air Force isn’t likely to commit many costly blunders this week. With just 4.5 penalties per game, the Falcons are one of the least penalized teams in the nation (25th) when playing at their home stadium.
Over on the other sideline, the Broncos head into Week 17 with records of 10-2 ATS and 8-4 SU. The Broncos went 4-1 both SU and ATS over the last five games. They enter the week as the country’s 23rd-best road scoring offense, dropping an average of 33.9 points per away game on opposing defenses. The Falcons have not found a lot of success stopping their opponents’ passing game. The Broncos have probably taken notice of that and will look to abuse a pass defense that ranks 101st in Division I with 256 passing yards allowed per game. Air Force will be matching up against a stout Broncos defense which has been playing better. They only allow 17 PPG over their last five matchups, well below their season average of 23.8. The Western Michigan pass defense has given teams nightmares during those games. During that time, opponents have gained an average of only 224.6 passing yards against this terrorizing unit. The Broncos usually get going immediately from the initial kickoff, averaging 8.5 points in the first quarter this year.
Predictions: SU Winner – WMU, ATS Winner – WMU, O/U – Over
Notes
Western Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
Air Force is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Air Force’s last 9 games.
Western Michigan is 6-2 SU when leading at the half this season. Air Force is 7-2 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Western Michigan is 7-2 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Air Force is 9-1 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
This season, Western Michigan is 4-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 3-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Air Force is undefeated (4-0 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and an even 3-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Western Michigan defense has forced an average of 2.6 turnovers over its last five games, but Air Force is 4-1 SU this season when turning the ball over at least 2 times in a game.
According to national passing ranks, Western Michigan has an advantage on both offense and defense. Its passing attack (ranked 37th in the country) will face the 101st-ranked pass defense of Air Force, while its 70th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 118th-ranked passing game of the Falcons.
According to overall FBS team rankings, Air Force is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its eighth-ranked rushing attack will face the 37th-ranked run defense of Western Michigan, while its 36th-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 52nd-ranked running game of the Broncos.
Air Force has allowed 24.0 points per game at home, which is ranked 62nd in the nation. Western Michigan has put up 33.9 points per contest in away games (ranked 23rd overall).
