The final round of the German Bundesliga season is in front of us this Saturday and according to the expectations, we have prepared for you a thorough analysis of every match-up. Every game of the final round will traditionally be played at the same time in order to avoid any kind of suspicion that may loom in the fans minds about some kind of “gerrymandering.”
Here, we will discuss the match-up that will occur at RheinEnergie Stadion in Koln where the home team will host the visitors from Mainz, a game that could have big implications in home team’s league table position, so let’s take a closer look.
FC KOLN vs. FSV MAINZ 05
3-Way: 1: FC Koln -154; X: +333 Draw; FSV Mainz 05 +480
Spread -1: FC Koln +110; FSV Mainz 05 -118
Total +2.5: Over -135; Under +140
When we put everything together, the FC Koln team has had a pretty successful year in the German Bundesliga. The first three months of the season went in extraordinary fashion as the Billy Goats recorded their first defeat in the end of the October after going undefeated over the first seven rounds. Since then, the team was pretty consistent in the “golden middle” of the table ranking with no more than two wins or two losses stringed together in the entire year.
Thanks to that, they currently find themselves in the position to be able to secure one of the spots that lead to the Europa League competition next year as they are currently ranked seventh with 46 points in 33 games, two points less than Freiburg who ranks sixth (Europa League qualification spot). If they get the full pray in their final match-up against Mainz on Saturday they could leapfrog to that spot which is a big possibility considering the fact that Freiburg will play their final game at Allianz Arena against the new old champion Bayern Munich.
When it comes to their recent form in the German Bundesliga, the team plays warm-cold but they are undefeated in last four games (since 2:1 loss on the road by FC Augsburg on April 15th) and they are coming off from a very valuable road draw (2:2) against another famous German club, Bayer Leverkusen.
They are 3-3-2 in the last eight games and they are 2-1-1 in the last four matches on home soil. Overall record at home this season is 8—6-2 with 27-17 goal difference (49-42 overall) and the team ranks 7th in the home league table with 30 of 48 possible points earned. Team scores 1.69 and concedes 1.06 goals at ReinEnergie Stadion (1.48-1.27 overall) and 44% of their home matches had over 2.5 goals in total. Almost every fifth game at home (19%) had over 3.5 goals in total and both teams scored in 56% of the Koln’s FC home match-ups. In 27% of their games team managed to concede at least one goal in both halves and in 24% they managed to score at least one goal in both halves. Most common result at home is a 1:1 draw (occurred five times) and most common score at halftime is 0:0 (occurred five times).
Anthony Modeste is having a big season as he scored 25 goals so far (second in the German Bundesliga) while Yuya Osako has six in his account. Osako and Lenoardo Bittencourt lead the team in assists with five each while passing segment belongs to defender Jonas Hector with 1212 total passes. Goalies Timo Horn (19 appearances), Thomas Kessler (13 appearances) and Sven Muller (one appearance) have 111 saves and nine games with clean sheets combined.
Pawel Olkowski (Muscle) is listed as doubtful for Saturday while Sehrou Guirassy’s (Muscle) status is unknown. Marcel Risse (Cruciate ligament) is back in circulation.
FSV MAINZ 05
The FSV Mainz 05 pulled one of the biggest comebacks in the team history when they defeated Eintracht Frankfurt at Opel Arena, their home soil last weekend. At halftime, things looked very grim as the team was in a 0:1 deficit and just after couple minutes of play in the second period, they conceded another goal, making it 0:2 after 50 minutes of play.
Sense of disbelief started to spread out in the stands and many fans started wondering if they are going to watch their team facing top German Bundesliga squads next year. Jhon Cordoba gave some hope when he managed to cut the deficit to 1:2 in the 60th minute and major sense of relief occurred when Stefan Bell scored an equalizer two minutes after that. Fans went completely frantic after Yoshinori Muto netted a screamer 14 minutes before the regular time to give the home team 3:2 advantage. The most important win of the season was concluded in the last minute of regular play when Pablo De Blasis scored Mainz’s fourth goal in the second half from the penalty kick.
After this win, Mainz team has finally secured the survival in the league and now they rank 13th in the German Bundesliga table with 37 points in 33 games. There is a possibility of having the same number of points as one of the teams that will be relegated but Mainz has better goal difference statistic than those teams and they are now 100% secured. Team is 2-2-4 in last eight games and they are also 0-2-2 in last four road games.
Overall record as visitors is 3-3-10 with 14-27 goal difference (44-53 overall) and they rank 16th in the road league table with 22 of 48 possible points earned. They score 0.88 and concede 1.69 goals per match on the road (1.33-1.61 overall) and every fourth Mainz’s road game had over 3.5 goals in total. Most common result on the road is 2:1 loss (occurred four times) and most common score at the halftime was 1:0 trail (occurred six times).
Levin Oztunali ties the team in scoring and assisting with five goals and five assists while passing segment belongs to defenders Giulio Donati and Stefan Bell who collected 1088 and 899 total passes. Also, four scorers from the last Saturday’s blockbuster, Bell, Cordoba, De Blasis and Muto also have five goals each in their accounts now. Goalkeepers Jonas Lossl (27 appearances) and Jannik Huth (six appearances) collected 101 saves and they also have seven games with clean sheets combined.
Pablo de Blasis (yellow cards) is suspended for the next match while Gaetan Bussman (Groin), Alexander Hack (Ankle) and Emil Berggreen (Cruciate ligament) are listed as doubtful for Saturday’s game. Marin Sverko (Muscle) is day to day and Florian Muller (Hip) is out for the season.
FC Koln vs. FSV Mainz 05 – Match Prediction
FSV Mainz 05 is set when it comes to the survival and they can play this one with no pressure.
On the other side Koln team needs full prey if they want to stay in the battle for the No. 6 spot that leads to Europa League next season.
Nevertheless, I’m 100% sure that they have the juice to do it. Safer bet by my opinion would be at least one goal scored by both sides.
My pick: Both teams score YES (-133)
Additional Pick: FC Koln (-154)
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