The annual decline column flips the ledger from Monday’s list of teams expected to improve, identifying five franchises projected to win fewer games in 2026. The piece notes that in a zero-sum league, gains for some clubs generally coincide with losses for others and relies on data the writer says has helped forecast past downswings.
According to the column, since 2017 the decline picks have gone 34-9 at forecasting teams that finish below their prior-season win total, adjusted for the move from 16 to 17 games. The improve/decline entries combined are 69-17 (.802) over that span, and the column is 50-36 (.581) against archived preseason over-unders on Pro-Football-Reference.com. The typical fall has averaged about 3.4 wins per 17-game season.
Last season’s column correctly identified four of five teams that regressed. The one miss was the Indianapolis Colts, who were 8-9 in 2024 and began 2025 a hot 8-2 before injuries, including Daniel Jones’ torn Achilles and limited availability of DeForest Buckner, preceded a seven-game losing streak and an 8-9 finish. The column notes larger collapses elsewhere: Minnesota fell from 14-3 to 9-8 as J.J. McCarthy did not meet expectations and Kevin O’Connell’s success in one-score games evaporated; Washington dropped from 12-5 to 5-12 amid an older roster, limited young talent and injuries to Jayden Daniels; Detroit fell from 15-2 to 9-8 after offensive-line and infrastructure issues, defensive injuries and a tougher schedule; and Kansas City tumbled to 6-11 after Patrick Mahomes sustained a torn ACL and the team went from 10-0 to 1-9 in one-score contests, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
Monday’s improvement piece listed the Chiefs and Lions among squads expected to rebound in 2026, while this decline column begins with a team that appeared in last year’s improvement projection. The writer highlights Chicago as the first regression candidate.
The 2025 Bears went 11-6 with a plus-26 point differential and a 7-4 mark in games decided by seven points or fewer. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects Chicago’s 2026 schedule as the 10th toughest. Bears head coach Ben Johnson publicly called his team the No. 1 regression candidate and emphasized passing EPA as an area of focus; the column describes the 2025 Bears as a classic example of a team whose advanced metrics suggest a likely decline even if the roster still could prevail.
The full decline list to be examined includes Carolina, Chicago, Denver, Jacksonville and New England, the column says.
