After week 10’s analysis didn’t feature any three-match previews, we’re getting back to it again with a triple-header of duels that will take place on the busiest day in German Bundesliga, Saturday. The first matchup will take place at Borussia Park between Monchengladbach team that is coming off from a 3:1 road win over Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz who split points with Frankfurt at home last Friday. The second matchup will feature FC Augsburg who also recorded a road win over Werder on Sunday and Leverkusen team which emerged victorious against bottom-ranked FC Koln team at Bay Arena.
The final duel will be staged at Imtech Arena and the participants will be Hamburger SV whose visit to Hertha Berlin last week ended bad (1:2 loss) and VfB Stuttgart who continued to grind the opponents in front of their own crowd with another strong win over Freiburg (3:0).
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05
Three-Way: 1: Borussia Monchengladbach -137; X: +323 Draw; 2: 1. FSV Mainz 05 +480 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread -1: Borussia Monchengladbach +120; 1. FSV Mainz 05 -119
Total +2.5: Over -135; Under +131
BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH
The Foals managed to get back right on track after suffering that home demolition by Leverkusen (1:5 loss at Borussia Park) two weeks ago with a road win over a very good Hoffenheim team on Saturday (1:3). If we have learned one thing about this squad, it’s the fact that when they lose, they lose hard because in three total defeats this season they conceded 12 goals.
They currently rank at the No. 6 spot in the Bundesliga table with 17 points and a 5-2-3 record (3-0-2 at home) and their goal difference is 16-18 (6-7 at home). 60% of their overall matches had over 2.5 goals in total while 20% of home soil duels had over 3.5 goals in total. An interesting fact is that 30% of their total games had over 2.5 goals at half-time while both teams scored in 60% of their overall showdowns. Team’s leading scorers are Thorgan Hazard and Lars Stindl with three goals each while Nico Elvedi and Vicenzo Grifo collected team-high two assists each. Goalies Yann Sommer and Tobias Sippel have 151 shots against, 29 saves and three clean-sheet games combined.
Laszlo Benes (foot) and Tobias Strobl (cruciate ligament) are out until next year while Jonas Hofmann’s status (knee) is unknown. Raul Marcelo Bobadilla (hip) is listed as day to day while Julio Villalba (finger), Cristoph Kramer (thigh) and Mamadou Doucoure (thigh) are all back in training.
FSV MAINZ 05
Three-game undefeated streak by Mainz team ended in round 9 with a road loss in Gelsenkirchen that followed last week’s home draw against Eintracht team. Mediocre performances are the squad’s modus operandi this Bundesliga season and having in mind the strength of its roster, it was actually expected. “Golden middle” that features the teams above the “battle for survival area” and below the “battle for European competitions area” will probably be their final reach throughout the season.
Currently, they rank at No. 13 spot in the Bundesliga table with 11 points and the 3-2-5 record (0-1-3 on the road). Their goal difference is 11-16 but on the road, they’ve managed to score only one goal so far while conceding eight. 40% of their overall matches had over 2.5 goals in total while 25% of their away games had over 3.5 goals in total. Top scorer is striker Yoshinori Muto with three goals while midfielder Levin Oztunali collected team-high four assists. Goalkeepers Rene Adler and Robin Zentner have 124 shots against, 25 saves and one clean-sheet game combined.
Rene Adler (thigh) and Karim Onisiwo (shoulder) should be back in mid-January next year while Robin Quaison (muscle), Gerrit Holtmann (calf), Niko Bungert (thigh) and Aaron Seydel (knee) are all listed as day to day. Alexander Hack (muscle) and Gaetan Bussman (groin) are back in training.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 – Match Prediction
This game is actually harder to predict than it seems to be because Monchengladbach team is prone to home soil flops. Still, I don’t think Mainz has enough juice to avoid a loss here and that will be my first pick. I would also go with over 2.5 goals in total.
My pick: Borussia Monchengladbach to win (-137)
Additional pick: Over 2.5 goals (-135)
FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Three-Way: 1: FC Augsburg +260; X: +290 Draw; 2: Bayer Leverkusen +125 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread +0.5: FC Augsburg -120; Bayer Leverkusen +120
Total +3: Over +10; Under -114
FC AUGSBURG
Comfortable 3:0 road win in Bremen last week ended the four-game winless streak for the team from Augsburg and now they’ll have a chance to get back on track in front of their own crowd after recording two consecutive home losses against Dortmund and Hannover 96 (both 2:1).
They are currently ranked at No. 9 spot in the Bundesliga table with 15 points and a 4-3-3 record (2-1-2 at home). They score 1.50 and concede 1.00 goals per game (15-10 goal difference) and 80% of their home duels had over 2.5 goals in total while only 20% of their overall games had over 3.5 goals in total. Both teams scored in every second Augsburg’s game and 30% of team’s conceded goals occurred in the first 15 minutes of the match. Alfred Finnbogason and Michael Gregoritsch top the team in scoring with five goals each while defender Philipp Max has team-high five assists. Goalkeeper Marwin Hitz has 155 shots against, 33 saves and four games with clean-sheets so far.
Sergio Cordova (ankle) should be back in a few weeks while Joannis Gelios’s (back) and Martin Hinteregger’s (ankle) status is unknown. Georg Teigl (back), Raphael Framberger (knee) and Moritz Leitner (ankle) are all listed as day to day.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN
The Bayer team is still riding an undefeated streak that now counts five straight games. They’re coming off from two consecutive wins, and more importantly, they’ve managed to score seven goals in those two duels as the attacking segment of the squad accelerates in the run for the most efficient unit in the Bundesliga.
The team currently ranks at No. 8 spot with 15 points and a 4-3-3 record (1-1-3 on the road). Their goal difference is 22-15 (9-10 when visiting) and 80% of their away matches had over 2.5 goals in total while 60% of their overall duels had over 3.5 goals in total. They’ve managed to score at least one goal in both halves in 40% of their overall games while both teams scored in every single Bayer’s road matchup so far. Kevin Volland is the team’s leading scorer with five goals while Wendell and Kai Havertz have team-high three assists each. Goalie Bernd Leno has 107 shots against, 20 saves and 2 clean-sheet games recorded.
Sven Bender (Illness) whose status is unknown and Lars Bender (foot) who is listed as day to day are only two players who are questionable for Saturday’s matchup.
FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen – Match Prediction
This sounds like a high-scoring Bundesliga game but the even less risky pick would be both teams score. However, my pick here will be over 3 goals in total because combined goal difference for these two teams is 37-25 (most of all duels in round 11 if we count out Der Klassiker).
My pick: Over 3 goals (+110)
Hamburger SV vs. VfB Stuttgart
Three-Way: 1: Hamburger SV +164; X: +240 Draw; 2: VfB Stuttgart +204
Spread 0: Hamburger SV -120; VfB Stuttgart +116
Total +2.5: Over +110; Under -115
HAMBURGER SV
The Hamburger team managed to get through the entire month of September and October without a win and after ten rounds, they expectedly find themselves ranked below the Bundesliga relegation line. The Red Shorts are winless in last eight games but much more concerning is the fact that seven of those eight were defeats. Chance for redemption will come this Saturday against the team that recorded all five road losses so far.
The HSV is as I’ve mentioned above, ranked below the relegation line in the league table with seven points and a 2-1-7 record (1-1-3 at home). Their goal difference is 7-17 (1-6 at home) and 50% of their overall matches had over 2.5 goals in total while both teams scored in only 30% of their duels. No HSV’s player has yet scored more than one goal but seven of them (Jann-Fiete Arp, Andre Hahn, Lewis Holtby, Nicolai Muller, Sejad Salihovic, Walace and Bobby Wood) scored exactly one each. Albin Ekdal and Kyriakos Papadopoulos collected team-high one assist each while goalie Christian Mathenia has 152 shots against, 23 saves and two clean-sheet games so far.
Gideon Jung is suspended for the next match (card suspension) while Nicoali Muller (cruciate ligament) will be out until late February next year. Bjarne Thoelke’s (knee, foot) and Andreas Hirzel’s (Flu) status is unknown while Pierre-Michael Lasogga (thigh) is listed as day to day.
VFB STUTTGART
The VfB Stuttgart’s tendencies this year reminds a lot of the Hertha Berlin team last season that implies top home-field and awful road performances. They are undefeated at home with a 4-1-0 record but they are also winless on the road with a 0-0-5 record. Nevertheless, if they can repeat Hertha’s success from last year that included UEFA Europa League berth, I’m sure that the fans won’t have any objections.
They currently rank at No. 12 spot in the Bundesliga table with 13 points and 9-11 goal difference (2-10 away). 40% of their overall matches had over 2.5 goals in total while 20% of their road games had over 3.5 goals in total. They’ve managed to concede at least one goal in both halves in 40% of their visits while both teams scored in only 30% of their overall duels. Chadrac Akolo is the team’s leading scorer with three goals while Simon Terodde follows with two. Dennis Aogo is the top assister with two while goalkeeper Ron-Robert Zieler has 107 shots against, 21 saves and four clean-sheet games at the moment.
Santiago Ascacibar is out for Saturday (card suspension), while Chadrac Akolko’s (unknown), Alexander Meyer’s (thigh) and Matthias Zimmermann’s (cruciate ligament) status is unknown. Anastasios Donis (shoulder) and Marcin Kaminski (ankle) are expected to be ready later this month while Holger Badstuber (thigh), Christian Gentner (head) and Carlos Mane (knee) are all listed as day to day.
Hamburger SV vs. VfB Stuttgart – Match Prediction
I sincerely doubt that HSV can lose this game but on the other hand the chances of emerging victorious are not big either. My best guess here that concerns the final result is a draw but in my opinion, the much less risky pick will be under 2.5 goals in total.
My pick: Under 2.5 goals (-115)
Additional pick: Draw (+240)
