The Denver Nuggets (2-0) square off against the Golden State Warriors (2-0) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 21, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports – Bay Area.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 231 points with Golden State opening as a 3.5-point favorite.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
In the Warriors’ last game, they defeated the Utah Jazz, 124-123, but they were unable to cover as 2.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (247) were well over the projected point total of 218.5. Golden State had a better effective field goal percentage (0.621 vs. 0.556). Utah, meanwhile, did a terrific job of converting from the charity stripe (24-29; 82.8 percent). Golden State rallied around Kevin Durant, who was the game’s leading scorer with 38 points on 14-for-25 shooting.
The Nuggets won big over the Phoenix Suns in their last matchup, 119-91, despite being 2-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (210) finished under the O/U total of 222.5. The Nuggets had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.1 vs. 18.2) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.559 vs. 0.448). With 35 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic led the way with his zeroth triple-double of the year.
Denver could own the offensive glass in this battle. Since the 2017-18 season, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.7 percent), while Golden State ranks 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent). Additionally, the Warriors’ top-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 112.6) will face off against the Nuggets’ 23rd-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 108.9).
The Warriors have had records of 60-24 straight up (SU) and 51-47-3 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Just over half of Golden State games have finished under the projected point total since last season.
On the other hand, the Nuggets, have records of 48-36 SU and 46-35-2 ATS since last season. Denver’s games have had a tendency to go over the O/U total over that same stretch (60.2 percent).
These two teams split four games last season. The Nuggets won the most recent game 115-108. Denver did a great job of getting and making free throws (25-29; 86.2 percent). Golden State, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.547 vs. 0.495).
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
When holding opponents below 100 points, Denver is 17-2 and Golden State is 23-7.
The Nuggets are 41-26 when they score over 100 points, while the Warriors are 72-17.
Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (14.0) while Golden State ranks 28th (10.6).
The Warriors rank first in assists per game (28.6) while the Nuggets rank 25th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
Golden State averages 17.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Denver ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.5).
The Warriors average 18.7 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 22nd in fast break points allowed per game (12.8).
Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (49.0) while Golden State ranks 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
The Warriors rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while the Nuggets rank 15th (4.8).
Denver averages 7.7 steals per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Golden State ranks 27th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
The Nuggets average 30.8 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Warriors rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (30.1).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Golden State ranks eighth (42.6).
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