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Why The Golden State Warriors Have Lost Their Edge

Kerr and the Warriors are fading but will the All-Star break rejuvenate them?

The Golden State Warriors are coming off a win on Monday night but it wasn’t a very impressive one. They barely got by the lowly Philadelphia 76ers by a count of 89-84. The 89 points was their second-lowest total of the season and their smallest number in a win. Although they’re the NBA’s best three-point shooting team, they hit just 24.1% of their threes.

The Warriors have been a popular choice among those betting NBA futures as they have looked like one of the league’s best teams so far this season but they are just 5-3 in their last eight games. That’s a bit of a concern considering it took them 24 games to register their first three losses. So what’s gone wrong? Let’s have a closer look:

Defensive Rebounding

This is the biggest problem facing the Warriors right now. This team is so strong on the perimeter with Stephen Curry’s and Klay Thompson’s sharpshooting, but the Warriors remain a team that can be overpowered and outworked on the glass by tougher teams with better big men. Golden State had a negative offensive rebounding differential in its loss to the Chicago Bulls two weeks ago on Jan. 27, they had a negative offensive rebounding differential when they lost to the much weaker Utah Jazz a few days later on Jan. 30 and they were outrebounded by 12 in Philadelphia on Monday. This team has an injury-prone big man in Andrew Bogut who is never really healthy and has never been able to play too long without needing to rest a few games. If Bogut could ever become much more physically sound and stable, this team would have the perfect mix for an NBA champion. As it is, though, it’s hard to see how Bogut can give this team good production through a best-of-seven-game series in the playoffs. Golden State would find it tough to match up with Memphis because the Grizzlies could destroy the Warriors on the boards.

Draymond Green

It has been said by many who follow and write about the Warriors that Green is really the player who knits things together at both ends of the court, with a quality jump shot but also an ability to take on all sorts of defensive assignments. Green is viewed as instrumental to the Warriors’ success, but in recent weeks, he’s been a lot more undependable. He scored only eight points against Sacramento on Feb. 3, then scored just two points against Dallas a night later and poured in just four points in a sloppy and sluggish win over a bad Philadelphia team this past Monday night. He’s struggling and now he’s dealing with an ankle injury. This team needs him to be more consistent to be successful.

The Defense Can Be Exposed By Quality Teams

The Warriors had to be shocked by the way the Atlanta Hawks ate them up in the second half of Friday’s highly anticipated game. The Warriors watched Atlanta hit 21 of 31 field goals in that second half – that’s better than 67 percent from the field. Other teams are going to look at what Atlanta did and study that film during the All-Star break. Golden State better be ready to make the right adjustments on defense because otherwise, this team will lose the defensive edge it has held over its opponents for much of the first 50 games of this season.

Energy And Inconsistency

The Warriors’ level of play is clearly a lot less steady and durable than it was when this team was truly rolling. Golden State, in its loss to Chicago a few weeks ago, scored 35 points in the first quarter but only 21 in the second. In a win on Saturday against the New York Knicks, the Warriors allowed a 16-0 run to New York and almost lost because of that lapse. On Monday against the 76ers, Golden State forced 27 turnovers but somehow scored only 89 points, one of the team’s worst offensive performances of the season.

When you see fluctuations in performance, you know a team is losing its legs and is not fully ready to play its best each night. Head coach Steve Kerr said as much after Monday’s win, calling his team tired. They are desperate to get to the break and recharge a little bit.

 

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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