The Phoenix Suns (20-60) and Golden State Warriors (57-23) open their Western Conference schedules at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The game will air on NBATV at 9 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 8, 2018.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns Betting Prediction
In the Warriors’ last outing, they were beaten by the New Orleans Pelicans, 126-120. New Orleans’ 0.195 free throw rate was their largest advantage over Golden State, who had a rate of 0.078. The Pelicans’ mark was above their season average of 0.184, while the Warriors’ was below their season average of 0.198. Kevin Durant was the top scorer from either team with 41 points on 16-for-26 shooting.
The Suns lost big to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, 122-103. New Orleans’ 0.535 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Phoenix, who had a mark of 0.441. The Pelicans’ mark was below their season average of 0.539, while the Suns’ was below their season average of 0.493. With 22 points and 11 rebounds, Josh Jackson had a solid game for Phoenix.
The offense of Phoenix will clash against the top-notch defense of Golden State. The Suns rank 30th in offensive efficiency, while the Warriors are ninth in defensive efficiency. The Warriors should have the edge on that end of the court.
Golden State is 57-23 straight up (SU), but they struggle covering the spread (32-44-3 against the spread (ATS)). Of the Warriors’ 79 games with betting action, 40 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Phoenix owns records of 20-60 SU and 36-42-2 ATS. Games including the Suns also have finished under the projected point total 51.2 percent of the time.
Both teams have had a couple of players trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Warriors it’s been Durant (25.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists) and Quinn Cook (16.6 points and 4.8 assists), while Jackson (23.6 points and 2.0 steals) and Tyler Ulis (16.6 points and 8.0 assists) have been great for the Suns.
The Warriors have emerged victorious in all three contests against the Suns this year, including a 10-point victory in their last matchup. Golden State was unable to cover as a 15-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 224 points, which was 8.5 points above the projected point total of 215.5 points. Golden State’s 0.612 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Phoenix, who had a mark of 0.517. Durant recorded a double-double with 29 points and 11 rebounds.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Golden State is 17-21-1 ATS on the road with 20 overs and 19 unders.
Phoenix is 14-25-1 ATS at home with 20 unders, 19 overs and 1 push.
Phoenix is 7-2 when they allow less than 100 points, while Golden State is 15-5.
The Suns are 15-35 when they reach the century mark, while the Warriors are 54-15.
Golden State ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Phoenix ranks 29th (6.0).
The Warriors rank first in assists per game (29.5) while the Suns rank 29th (21.1).
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.5) while Phoenix ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (14.7).
The Warriors average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Suns rank 29th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
Golden State ranks eighth in points off turnovers per game (17.4) while Phoenix ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.8).
The Warriors rank seventh in rebounds allowed per game (42.3) while the Suns rank 28th (46.0).
Phoenix ranks 11th in second chance points per game (13.0) while Golden State ranks last in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
The Suns rank 10th in points in the paint per game (45.9) while the Warriors rank 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Phoenix is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.8, down from 6.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 101.8 points per game (1.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (3.9 below their season average).
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