This Saturday August 9th in Los Angeles, the mega grappling event Metamoris 4 goes down with most of the attention focused on the match-up between disgraced UFC fighter Chael Sonnen and JJ black belt Andre Galvao. The bout and some of the other individual match-ups at the M4 event have odds up at DSI right now.
Sonnen is a heavy underdog, paying (+1600) on a $100 bet, while Galvao sits as a (-1500) favorite. The odds reflect the format of the event, which is under grappling rules that encourage a submission. Galvao has been playing at the highest level in the world at this very sport for many years now, while Sonnen has only dabbled in this type of game.
And Sonnen, for all his media savvy, is likely to be under pressure at this event from the outside forces that surround him. Multiple failed tests for PEDs by state commissions have led to his retirement and suspension from MMA, and to his firing as a UFC TV broadcaster. Throughout all the fallout, Sonnen has only released statements through lawyers, and he has appeared to accept responsibility and admitted his wrongdoing.
So this will be the first competition for Sonnen in the public eye. Sonnen also goes into a submission format not really being an expert in submission. In this type of match, Sonnen is unlikely to finish Galvao unless there is a major fluke, so he will be forced to wrestle for control and look to extend the match the full limit. Galvao will look to finish, and in his MMA career, Sonnen has been susceptible to submissions when he is tired, so look for Galvao to send a steady flow of submission attempts at Sonnen until one of them catches.
Interestingly, the odds sit at (+300) for a draw, meaning that should Sonnen survive the full time limit of 20 minutes under the usual Metamoris rules, you would make $300 for a $100 bet. Metamoris has had most of the super-fights they have put together end in a draw, so this might still be the safest bet when looking at the match. If Sonnen is motivated to come into this format and can stall and stay safe, the match could very well go to the full time limit.
