This coming August 9th, the Metamoris Grappling promotion will host it’s fourth event in Los Angeles. The event features multiple super-fights, including a showdown between UFC Heavyweight Josh Barnett and long time Grappling stand-out Dean Lister. Right now, BETDSI is the only book out there with odds, and the have Lister a strong (-800) favorite over Barnett, who returns (+750). The draw, which with a no points system us still the most likely outcome, returns (+200).
Perhaps Barnett has fallen in his game with age and inactivity, but he has competed under submission only rules quite well in the past. Additionally, his mind set about competition and willingness to try different formats all usually comes with some preparation. In other words, Barnett is a little more than a UFC fighter doing a grappling event. If he gets lucky against Lister he could finish the bout, which is more than can be said for most wrestlers who cross over to a submission format.
Barnett will have a good size advantage on Lister, and Barnett has a solid grasp on leglocks and lower body submissions, for which Lister is known. Due to the size advantage, Lister may pull guard, which could see Barnett playing defense the whole time and lead to the potential draw. Barnett’s best chance might be to land in side control on the way to the mat, and finish with a head squeeze or crank, north south choke or kimura. Options beyond that are even more remote for Barnett.
Lister is an extremely skilled specialist at what he does and he is expected to catch Barnett at some point, as the odds show. Lister needs to be careful facing a heavyweight now that he is older. He has always done well with heavyweights in his career, but as he has aged he has likely lost some of his explosiveness. Whereas he used to take on bigger men and win because of technique and explosiveness, he may be facing Barnett bulking up and trying to match mass with a much bigger man. Bigger means slower in Lister’s case, and that does not work to his advantage.
It is an interesting fight pitting two decade plus long veterans of the MMA scene, and one that will see the most likely outcome be a draw.
