The Houston Cougars and the San Diego State Aztecs meet up in Sin City to settle their differences at Sam Boyd Stadium in the Las Vegas Bowl. The final game of the season for the two programs is set to get started on Saturday, December 17th at 3:30 p.m. ET. Heading into this match-up, the Cougars are a -3 point favorite and the contest’s total sits at 54.5.
Houston and San Diego State have only met twice in their program’s history, and the Cougars have came away victorious in both games. The last time they played, the Cougars won in San Diego, 14-9, in 1973.
Houston (9-3):
Todd Orlando will step in and coach the Cougars into the Las Vegas Bowl, but it was Tom Herman who led them for the past two years. Herman has picked up and moved shop to Arlington to coach the Longhorns. The Cougars were riding a three-game winning streak before they got into a shoot-out with Memphis on the road and lost, 48-44, to finish the regular season. Houston’s other two losses also were on the road, to the Midshipmen and SMU.
The Multi-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. has proved this season that he’s a very capable passer. Ward Jr. completed 67.6 percent of his throws for 3,328 yard and 22 touchdowns with nine picks. The talented signal-caller also can do plenty of damage with his feet. He leads Houston with 518 rushing yards and nine scores on 175 carries.
When Greg Ward Jr. isn’t tucking the ball and running, tail back Duke Catalon is the Cougar’s go-to guy. Catalon scampered for another 510 yards on 131 carries and also tallied four touchdowns.
Three capable receivers find open space for Greg Ward Jr. to deliver the football through the air to them. Together, they have collected 200 catches for almost 1,600 yards and 14 scores. Linell Bonner led the Cougars with 93 catches for 1,076 yards. Wide out Chance Allen leads the team with six receiving touchdowns, and has 56 grabs for 815 yards.
Houston’s defense has been as much as a coordinator could ask for and then some. The Cougars are stout against the run, ranking 3rd in the country, giving way to only 97.9 yards per contest. The secondary struggled late, allowing only 227 yards through the air (67th).
San Diego State (10-3):
As for the Aztecs, well coach Rocky Long has done an unbelievable job with his team. A six-game winning streak for the Aztecs was cut short with a loss on the road to the Wyoming Cowboys.
Two weeks later, San Diego State had a chance to revenge the loss in the Mountain West Championship Game. San Diego State took advantage and claimed the Mountain West Conference title for the second straight year with a 27-24 triumph.
In the championship game against the Cowboys, quarterback Christian Chapman threw for only 85 yards and one pick. Chapman hasn’t been asked to carry the Aztec’s offense, but just be smart with the football. For the most part, the youngster has responded for coach Rocky Long, throwing for almost 1,866 yards with 19 touchdowns and only six interceptions.
The Aztecs are the 7th ranked running team in the country (273 ypg). In fact, Donnell Pumphrey may be the best back in the FBS. In 2016, he has rushed for an amazing 2,018 yards and 16 trips to glory. By the way, his partner in crime Rashaad Penny is no slouch either. Penny is just five yards shy of 1,000 yards and also has 11 scores to show for his efforts.
When San Diego State does throw the football downfield, they look for their best receiver Mikah Holder. Holder leads the Aztecs with 26 catches for 569 yards and five touchdown grabs. Tight end David Wells contributes in the red zone, catching another four scores from Christian Chapman.
Running the rock against the Aztecs hasn’t been easy for opposing teams in 2016 either. San Diego State’s front seven is solid against opposing tailbacks, ranking 11th in the nation allowing only 111.9 yards a game. They also are pretty efficient in the red zone, limiting programs to just 21 points a match (19th). If the games is tight, the Aztec’s kicker John Baron II has nailed 52-of-54 extra points and 19-of-21 field goals.
Trends and Notes:
The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Aztecs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
The Over is 4-1 in the Cougars last 5 Bowl games.
The Over is 5-1 in the Aztecs last 6 games overall.
The Las Vegas Bowl has had crowds of more than 32,000 for 10 consecutive seasons.
The Las Vegas Bowl has sold-out in eight of the last 11 seasons.
Game Prediction:
Well it’s official, Houston will be entering this game with their head coach Todd Herman. Some people think that won’t make a difference, but upsetting the norm can have a profound effect on players at this level. Senior quarterback Greg Ward won’t let that happen.
San Diego State didn’t finish the last month off the way they wanted too, but they got their revenge over the Wyoming Cowboys and won the Mountain West Conference again. Donnel Pumphrey hopes to close out a stellar career with a big victory over the Cougars.
I realize that both teams bring a lot of talent to this match-up on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, Houston’s strength against the run is exactly what the Aztecs do over and over.
That factor will be the difference in this game, as the Cougars will be able to pass and throw while San Diego State can’t. Expect this game to be physical and close until the fourth quarter when Greg Ward’s all around skill leads the Cougars to victory.
Take the Cougars to cover the -3 and buy it down to 2.5 if it makes you sleep better. By the way, if you like to play the totals, pick the over 54.5. The Aztecs will still get their ground game going enough to score some points against Houston’s front seven.
