The Dallas Mavericks (21-45) welcome the league-leading Houston Rockets (51-14) to American Airlines Center. The game can be seen on ATTSN Southwest at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 11, 2018.
Houston opened as a 13-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 214 points.
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The last time the Rockets played, they were beaten by the Toronto Raptors, 108-105. Toronto won the rebounding battle. The Raptors had 12 offensive rebounds and 42 total rebounds, while the Rockets had seven and 36, respectively. James Harden was the top scorer from either team with 40 points on 15-for-22 shooting.
The Mavericks had no trouble getting past the Memphis Grizzlies in their last contest, 114-80. The Mavericks made 30 of their 35 free throws (85.7 percent) and held the Grizzlies to an effective field goal percentage of 0.399 (below their season average of 0.498). With 15 points and 10 rebounds, Dwight Powell put together a good outing for Dallas.
Second-chance opportunities might be hard to come by for Dallas in this showdown. The Mavericks are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 30th in offensive rebounding percentage at 17.7 percent. Meanwhile, Houston ranks third in the league at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 80.6 percent. Additionally, the Rockets rank second in effective field goal percentage (0.555), whereas the porous defense of the Mavericks ranks 22nd with an effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.531.
Houston holds records of 51-14 straight up (SU) and 34-30-1 against the spread (ATS). Rockets games have a slight tendency to finish under the projected point total (52.3 percent).
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 21-45 SU and 33-32 ATS. Mavericks games also have a slight tendency to go under the projected point total (52.3 percent).
Powell has averaged 11.2 points and 9.6 rebounds over the last five games for Dallas.
The Rockets have emerged victorious in all three contests against the Mavericks this year, including a 104-97 victory the last time these teams met. Houston was unable to cover as a 15-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 201 points, which was 14 points below the projected point total of 215 points. The Rockets had a much better free throw rate (0.295 vs. 0.118) and had a better turnover percentage (8.9 vs. 12.3). Chris Paul was a standout player in the game, producing 25 points, nine assists and eight rebounds.
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Houston is 22-12 ATS on the road with 20 unders, 13 overs and 1 push.
At home, Dallas is 16-18 ATS with 17 unders, 16 overs and 1 push.
When allowing less than 100 points, Dallas is 14-11 and Houston is 23-2.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Mavericks are 15-22 and the Rockets are 49-11.
Dallas ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (41.5) while Houston ranks 28th (48.1).
The Rockets rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Mavericks rank 27th (45.5).
Houston ranks sixth in points off turnovers per game (17.8) while Dallas ranks 29th (14.5).
The Rockets rank second in steals per game (8.8) while the Mavericks rank 23rd (7.2).
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.1) while Dallas ranks 15th in three pointers allowed per game (29.3).
The Rockets average 11.4 fast break points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. The Mavericks rank 27th in fast break points allowed per game (14.2).
Houston ranks 18th in blocks per game (4.6) while Dallas ranks 28th (3.8).
The Rockets rank 21st in second chance points per game (11.5) while the Mavericks rank last (10.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.8, down from 8.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 110.2 points per game (7.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (1.6 above their season average).
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