The Missouri Tigers (10-2) meet the Illinois Fighting Illini (8-5) at Scottrade Center. The game can be seen on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 23, 2017.
Missouri is a 4-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 149 points.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Missouri Tigers Betting Prediction
The last time the Fighting Illini played, they were beaten by the New Mexico State Aggies, 74-69. New Mexico State’s 0.556 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Illinois, who had a rate of 0.484. The Aggies’ mark was above their season average of 0.531. Leron Black led Illinois in scoring with 17 points on 6-for-11 shooting.
The Tigers edged the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks in their last matchup, 82-81. Missouri made good use of their 27 trips to the charity stripe, making 23 of them (85.2 percent). Stephen F. Austin, on the other hand, was 13-17 (76.5 percent). With 22 points and six rebounds, Missouri’s Jordan Barnett put together a good game.
This matchup pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Missouri currently ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and Illinois is 46th in defensive efficiency. Conflicting tempos will be on display in this contest. The up-tempo Fighting Illini rank 35th in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Tigers rank 288th.
Illinois comes into the contest with records of 8-5 straight up (SU) and 5-5 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Fighting Illini have typically gone under the O/U total (70.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Missouri owns records of 10-2 SU and 6-5 ATS. Vegas has been spot on when setting the total of Tigers games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Barnett has averaged 18.0 points and 7.6 rebounds over the last five games for Missouri.
After the Fighting Illini won the sole game against the Tigers last season, 75-66, these teams will meet for the first time this year. The Fighting Illini had a much better free throw rate (0.408 vs. 0.262) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.561 vs. 0.410).
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Missouri Tigers Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Illinois, ATS Winner – Illinois, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Missouri ranks 37th in blocks per game (5.2) while Illinois ranks 186th (1.9).
The Fighting Illini rank 12th in three pointers allowed per game (16.8) while the Tigers rank 141st (22.3).
Illinois ranks 41st in steals per game (8.0) while Missouri ranks 127th (6.2).
The Tigers rank 35th in rebounds per game (39.8) while the Fighting Illini rank 89th (37.6).
Missouri ranks 44th in assists per game (16.6) while Illinois ranks 83rd (15.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Illinois is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Missouri is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Fighting Illini’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.2, down from 11.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Tigers have scored an average of 79.8 points per game (0.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 63.8 points per game (2.5 below their season average).
