The Milwaukee Bucks (1-0) welcome the Indiana Pacers (1-0) to Fiserv Forum for their home opener. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, October 19, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin.
Milwaukee opened as a 3-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 216.5 points.
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
The Pacers will be looking for a similar outcome after easily covering the 7.5-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in their last outing, 111-83. The combined points for the game (194) were under the O/U total of 204.5. Indiana out-rebounded Memphis. The Pacers had 13 offensive rebounds and 57 total rebounds, while the Grizzlies had seven and 28, respectively. Domantas Sabonis played a key role for Indiana with 14 points and 15 rebounds.
In the Bucks’ last matchup, they edged the Charlotte Hornets, 113-112, but were not able to cover as 3-point favorites. The combined points for the game (225) came in just over the O/U total of 222. The Bucks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.6 vs. 16.4) and had a better free throw rate (0.176 vs. 0.152). Giannis Antetokounmpo was Milwaukee’s leading scorer with 25 points on 9-for-21 shooting.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Milwaukee ranks 23rd in possessions per game (97.8) and Indiana is 27th (97.5) dating back to last season.
The Pacers are 49-34 straight up (SU) and 42-43-2 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Games featuring Indiana have gone over the O/U total 49.4 percent of the time since last season.
The Bucks, meanwhile, are 45-38 SU and 39-50 ATS since last season. A little over half of Milwaukee’s games have finished over the O/U total over that same period.
The Pacers won three out of four contests against the Bucks last season. In the most recent contest, Indiana won 92-89. The Pacers had a better turnover percentage (14.0 vs. 16.2) and had a better free throw rate (0.208 vs. 0.184).
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Pick
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Milwaukee is 19-6 and Indiana is 30-5.
The Pacers are 41-18 when they score more than 100 points, while the Bucks are 41-22.
Milwaukee ranks fourth in blocks per game (5.5) while Indiana ranks 24th (4.1).
The Bucks rank second in fast break points allowed per game (10.0) while the Pacers rank 16th (12.0).
Indiana ranks 17th in second chance points per game (12.1) while Milwaukee ranks last (10.2).
The Pacers rank 12th in points in the paint per game (45.1) while the Bucks rank 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.0).
Indiana averages 18.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Milwaukee ranks 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.8).
The Pacers rank 22nd in rebounds per game (42.3) while the Bucks rank last (39.9).
Indiana ranks second in steals per game (8.7) while Milwaukee ranks fifth in steals allowed per game (7.1).
Neither of these teams shoot many long balls. The Bucks are 25th in the NBA with 24.9 three pointers per game while the Pacers are 26th with 24.7 threes per game.
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