One of the biggest questions in 2015 Fantasy Football Drafts will be where to take Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. In point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, Bell was a clear top pick but he is facing a three-game suspension to start the 2015 season.
But is Bell still worth your top pick in PPR drafts? And how high should you take him in Non-PPR?
Bell’s Numbers
By any standard, 2014 was a great year for Bell. He averaged 18 points per game in standard leagues and 23.2 points per game in PPR leagues. He was just basically neck-and-neck with DeMarco Murray as the top running back in the league. From Weeks 7-16 it was Bell who was statistically the top running back, as he averaged 26.8 points per game in PPR leagues. Can Bell duplicate those numbers in 2015? If he misses three games then he is definitely not going to put up as many total points but he still might be able to put up similar numbers in average points per game.
But, keep in mind that Bell stayed healthy last year and that has not always been the case in his career as he missed three games due to injury in his rookie year of 2013.
Bell and his Handcuff
If you believe Bell is still worth your No. 1 pick in 2015 fantasy football league drafts then you have to take his backup, DeAngelo Williams. You can then start Williams in the first three weeks and have Bell ready for Week 4. You would lose anywhere from 5-10 points per game assuming that Williams will score less in Pittsburgh’s offense than Bell or if you are stuck with a fill-in running back that you took late in the draft.
If you take Bell, then you have to hope you can survive the first three weeks of the season and somehow go 2-1. And if you can do that then Bell is well worth the top pick because he will be even more valuable later in the season as he will be three weeks fresher than all other running backs.
Moving Bell Down Your List
If you are drafting in a standard league that doesn’t count points for receptions then Bell is definitely not worth a top pick. He may not even be worth a first round pick. Bell is a very good player in PPR leagues but in standard leagues he simply doesn’t have the value to make him a first round pick in 2015 because of his suspension. And keep in mind that running back production is oftentimes difficult to predict from year to year. The top three running backs in scoring in 2013 were Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte. Only Forte landed in the top five in scoring last season.
Judging the Risk
It is all about risk tolerance when it comes to drafting Bell. If you believe you can manage your roster effectively then you might gamble and take Bell. If you want to avoid the risk then you let someone else take Bell and deal with the early season headache.
