The Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars will get together at NRG Stadium to close out the regular season. A player to keep an eye on during this game is NFL’s fourth-leading rusher, Arian Foster (1,223 yards, 8 TDs). It will air Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Texans and Jaguars last met in Week 14. Jacksonville fell to Houston 27-13. Foster had a good outing on the ground in that game, rushing for 127 yards and one TD on 24 attempts. Demetrius McCray led the way for the Jacksonville defense, recording six tackles.
Houston is a clear 10-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is 40 points. Sitting at 8-7 Straight Up (SU) and 9-5-1 Against The Spread (ATS), the Texans will look to improve as they head into Week 17. In their five most recent matchups, the Texans went 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. They should have no issues lighting up the scoreboard against the Jaguars, who come into the week as one of the worst-scoring defenses in the league at 25.9 points allowed per game. A focal point of Houston’s offense is the run game, where they rank fourth in the league with 136.1 rushing yards per game. Houston’s defense isn’t great, but they will probably look like they are when they matchup against the league’s worst-scoring offense (15.5 PPG). Houston’s front seven will be licking its chops against the Jaguars and their struggling run game this season. Jacksonville averages just 78.6 yards per road game on the ground, ranking 26th in the NFL. An important aspect of the game will be if the Jaguars can fend off Houston’s ability to take the ball away. The Texans currently rank first in the league with 2.3 turnovers per game. Jacksonville’s defense should make it easy on the Texans heading into halftime. The Jaguars allow an average of 9.4 points in the second quarter, making them one of the worst in the league. The Texans should have no trouble winning the time of possession battle this week. Jacksonville averages a time of only 28:39 per game, ranking them 27th in the NFL.
As for their opponent, the Jaguars have 3-12 SU and 5-9-1 ATS records this season. The Jaguars went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. During their last five games, the Jaguars have done a better job of keeping their opponents off the scoreboard. Their average of allowing 25.9 PPG has fallen since they’ve only given up an average of 21 over their last five. The Texans defense seems to take a wrong turn out of the gate. The Jaguars can take an early advantage against Houston and its average of 5.4 first-quarter points allowed at home. Houston’s weak special teams might open the door to opportunity for the Jaguars this week. The Texans give up an average of 108 return yards during home games, ranking 28th in the NFL this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU, O/U – Under
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 5 games.
Jacksonville is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games.
Jacksonville is 5-11-2 ATS in its last 18 games.
Jacksonville is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 7 games when playing Houston.
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston.
Jacksonville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston.
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston.
Jacksonville is 1-3 SU when leading at the half this season. Houston is 6-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
This season, Jacksonville is 1-3 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and winless (0-8 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
Dating back to last year, both teams are just 4-7 SU against AFC South opponents.
Houston is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its fourth-ranked rushing attack will face the 27th-ranked run defense of Jacksonville, while its 11th-ranked run defense will look to contain the 23rd-ranked rushing game of the Jaguars.
