Japan can guarantee a place in the round of 32 with a result against Sweden after earning four points from their opening two Group F matches, according to ESPN. The Samurai Blue came from behind twice to draw 2-2 with the Netherlands, courtesy of an 89th-minute equalizer, and followed that with a 4-0 win over Tunisia.
Those four points have not yet secured automatic advancement, but anything other than a defeat on Thursday will see Japan through to the knockout rounds, according to ESPN. A win could even lift them to first in the group, while a draw would assure a top-two finish without waiting for the final round of group matches.
Japan have been public about their long-term ambitions: the Japan Football Association has set a 2050 target to win the World Cup, and midfielder Daichi Kamada reiterated the immediate aim after the Tunisia victory, telling ESPN, “We really want to win this World Cup.” The team’s results so far — a draw against higher-ranked opposition and a dominant victory over Tunisia — have reinforced those intentions.
Sweden arrive after a 5-1 loss to the Netherlands but still present a significantly different challenge than Tunisia. Sweden feature forwards Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak and midfielders Lucas Bergvall, Anthony Elanga and Yasin Ayari, who all play for prominent Premier League clubs, according to ESPN.
Japan will be without Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino, and Takefusa Kubo remains sidelined for a second successive match, according to ESPN. Ayase Ueda scored twice and added an assist against Tunisia, and Kamada has two goals in the tournament; a third goal for either player would set a record for goals by a Japanese player at a single World Cup, according to ESPN.
How Japan approach the match will determine the ease of their path in the knockout stage. A loss could still permit progression but would complicate their round-of-32 draw; a draw likely leaves them second and could set up an immediate meeting with Brazil in Houston on June 29. A win would further bolster their credentials as genuine World Cup contenders, according to ESPN.
